Brace for a summer of market turbulence

Investors should be preparing now for a turbulent summer as markets face a “perfect storm” of low liquidity, heightened geopolitical tension, rising inflationary pressures, and ongoing debt dilemmas, warns one of the world’s leading financial advisory and asset management organizations

 

 

deVere Group CEO Nigel Green says: “This summer isn’t going to be calm. It’s going to be charged, fast-moving and potentially rewarding for those who are ready.”

 

 

The warning comes as inflation data is expected to surprise to the upside, driven in part by escalating tariff threats, global supply chain distortions, and a tight labour market in key economies.

 

 

“Higher inflation means higher-for-longer interest rates. That alone is enough to spook markets. But add in thin summer liquidity and the picture becomes even more unpredictable,” says the chief executive.

 

 

“When fewer traders are active, price movements become more exaggerated. That means sharper falls – but also steeper rallies for those well-positioned.”

 

 

One of the major flashpoints is the renewed trade tension between the US and China. With tit-for-tat rhetoric flaring again and policy announcements shifting week to week, investors face a policy environment riddled with uncertainty.

 

 

“These aren’t superficial disagreements,” notes Nigel Green.

 

 

“This is a battle for global economic primacy. The US administration’s protectionist stance is hardening, and Beijing is responding in kind. Expect more headlines and more knee-jerk market reactions. It’s not a place for passive portfolios.”

 

 

At the same time, the US is facing a fiscal squeeze. With national debt climbing above $36 trillion and bond issuance surging to finance government spending, appetite for US debt is thinning abroad. Major holders such as China and Japan are reducing exposure to Treasuries to stabilise their own economies.

 

 

“Bond markets are starting to feel the strain,” explains the deVere CEO.

 

 

“Yields are rising as fewer buyers step in – and that has enormous implications for stock valuations, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors.”

 

 

Despite the short-term turbulence, there’s cause for optimism.

 

 

“We see the seeds of recovery forming,” he says.

 

 

“The AI revolution is real. It’s not a gimmick or a passing phase. Productivity gains driven by automation, large language models and robotics are going to drive disinflation over the medium term – and profit margins are set to improve for forward-thinking companies.”

 

 

He continues: “As inflation cools, central banks will finally pivot to rate cuts – and that’s where the upside lies.

 

 

“But to benefit from that, you have to endure the summer heat first.”

 

 

Investors, he says, should be using the current volatility as an opportunity – not a deterrent.

 

 

“Don’t retreat into cash or wait for calm skies. You need to review your positioning, diversify across sectors, asset classes and geographies, and lean into megatrends like AI and clean tech.”

 

 

The summer, historically a quieter period for financial markets, is shaping up to be a critical inflection point.

 

 

The advice from deVere is unambiguous: review, rebalance, and take advantage of mispriced opportunities before the window closes.

 

 

“Smart investors don’t wait to be told everything is fine. They move early, position wisely, and profit when others panic,” says Nigel Green.

 

 

“This is one of those moments. A summer of volatility is not a threat – it’s a chance.”

 

 

He concludes: “Volatility is a feature, not a flaw, and right now, there are compelling invitations to act.”