inequality“Here we are stranded
Somehow it seems the same, beware
Here comes the quiet life again”

 
Ronald Reagan famously asked voters: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”

Today, workers in the UK are poorer today than they were in 2008. We are the only country across the G20 where this is so.

Listening to Rishi, et al has become soooo dull. It’s incoherent rubbish. He is telling us what’s wrong and how he might right them, when, in actual fact, the mess is of his own party’s making.

Having said all of that, listening to Labour is no better; Wes Streeting was on Breakfast TV, instant cure for insomnia.

It feels like, “is there really an election going on”? Mercifully, there are always some humorous bits out there.
 

‘workers in the UK are poorer today than they were in 2008. We are the only country across the G20 where this is so’

 
Just when it felt like the Tories had reached the bottom of their bad ideas barrel, they come up with a plan for conscription.

Once I stopped laughing, the reality set in, they really hate young people. It’s 1950s, squaddies square-bashing some discipline into them. “Toughen up teenagers,” declared the unlikely defence secretary, Grant Shapps.

Conscription ended in 1960, too expensive to accommodate the reluctant doing nothing useful, and even rejected by some on the rights idols, such as Milton Friedman.

Putting all of that to one-side, introducing mandatory national service would leave the UK’s poorest regions millions of pounds worse off, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (“IFS”) .

The institute said that the Conservatives’ proposal to pay for the scheme by scrapping the UK shared prosperity fund from 2028-29 would severely downgrade efforts to level up the country.

Its analysis found that if the money that would have been distributed via the fund were instead redirected according to the number of 18-year-olds in each area who take part in national service, then Wales could lose £275m a year, Cornwall £72m, and the North East and Tees Valley mayoral areas a combined £46m.

David Phillips, an associate director at the IFS, said the Conservatives’ plan to redirect the fund’s resources would represent a major shift in how spending was allocated across the country.
 

‘Just when it felt like the Tories had reached the bottom of their bad ideas barrel, they come up with a plan for conscription’

 
“Rather than being targeted at poorer areas and aimed at levelling up, the funding would be spread across the country based on where 18-year-olds are undertaking their military or community service.

The scheme may therefore create opportunities for young people across the UK but would mean hundreds of millions less in funding for community and economic development in Wales, Cornwall and the north and Midlands of England.”

The shared prosperity fund is a £1.5bn p.a. programme created post-Brexit to replace EU regional economic development programmes. As such, funding allocation is particularly high in economically disadvantaged areas such as the south Wales valleys and Cornwall.

From bashing the kids, Rishi is now cuddling granny, as, from April 2025, he proposes to raise the tax-free pension allowance in line with the triple lock, meaning the personal allowance for pensioners would increase by 2.5%, average earnings growth or inflation – whichever is the highest. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, by 2027 the state pension is expected to be higher than the tax-free personal allowance. The Conservatives say the “triple lock plus” would mean the state pension would always be below the tax-free threshold, preventing millions more pensioners being dragged into income tax. They say it will amount to a tax cut of about £100 a year for 8 million pensioners next year – rising to £275 a year by the end of the parliament.
 

‘Conservatives say the “triple lock plus” would mean the state pension would always be below the tax-free threshold’

 
The Tories claim the policy would cost an estimated £2.4bn a year by the end of the parliament, and is in addition to the £2.5bn bill for the national service scheme.

This madness will be funded by the previously announced plan to save £6bn a year from a clampdown on tax avoidance and evasion. Additional funds to cover the national service plan would be partly paid for as described above.

So far, so good, but…. Carl Emmerson, deputy director at the IFS, doubts the government’s ability to achieve savings from chasing tax evaders and avoiders. Emmerson said: “The bigger picture is that the public finances are not in a good state and the next government will need to show how it is going to fund public services.” Promises of tax cuts make that harder

The Office for Budget Responsibility has also said there is not enough evidence to show the Treasury can raise the funds from avoidance and evasion.

Oh well, that’s the Tories, what of Labour?

What about Labour? Can I even call them that, as they continue to move away from their roots.

There is Diane Abbot, who I have sympathy for. She is a good constituency MP, who cares about her constituents and they clearly care about her. Yes, she made a foolish remark, but was quick to apologise. The fact that Starmer used this as an excuse to hang her out to dry does him no credit.

Now we have the fiasco of is she allowed to stand for election? If so, for who?

This clearly is part of Starmer’s purge of Corbynites, which is based on Starmer’s belief that a traditional Labour party cannot succeed at the ballot box.
 

‘Starmer’s belief that a traditional Labour party cannot succeed at the ballot box’

 
A belief echoed by Chris Mullin who, for 23-yrs, was the Labour MP for Sunderland South, serving as a minister in three departments and chairing one of the main select committees. As he wrote today, “these days I wouldn’t stand a chance of being selected. I had been on the losing side in the civil war that rent the Labour party in the late 70s and early 80s; and, having been editor of the leftwing journal Tribune, I could be seen coming from a long way off. Now the unseen hands at Labour HQ that appear to be systematically fixing Labour parliament selections would have blocked me at first sight.”

And what of Starmer? This week he told us that Labour has changed “permanently” under his stewardship, after the party ruled out raising income tax or national insurance if it wins the election.

Speaking in the SE where Labour is targeting swing voters in Conservative-held seats, he said: “Whatever the polls say, I know there are countless people who haven’t decided how they’ll vote in this election.

“They’re fed up with the failure, chaos and division of the Tories, but they still have questions about us. Has Labour changed enough? Do I trust them with my money, our borders, and our security?
 

‘Has Labour changed enough? Do I trust them with my money, our borders, and our security?’

 
“My answer is yes, you can – because I have changed this party. Permanently. This has been my driving mission since day one. I was determined to change Labour so that it could serve the British people.”

Labours’ offering includes, a 100-day review of threats facing Britain, involving MI5, the police and Whitehall conducting a “security sprint” to identify threats from hostile states, including Russia and Iran, from extremism and artificial intelligence.

There would be no “unfunded proposals” in the Labour manifesto, the shadow chancellor told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg: “Money for our NHS, the additional police – 13,000 additional police and community officers – and the 6,500 additional teachers in our schools, they are all fully costed and fully funded promises, because unless things are fully costed and fully funded, frankly, you can’t believe they’re going to happen.”

One piece of Labour news that did please me, primarily because Mussolini my mother hates her, was that Angela Rayner has been cleared of criminal wrongdoing over claims she avoided tax on the sale of a home

The whole thing was just shabby politics by rather nasty Tories hoping to stir-up trouble.
 

‘Speaking of rather nasty people we finish with Nigel Farage, if only we could…..’

 
Speaking of rather nasty people we finish with Nigel Farage, if only we could…..

He is the most influential unelected person is my memory, his spectre hangs over the Tories like the Sword of Damocles.

In an interview with the Sun, Farage said: “I got rid of Mrs May with the Brexit party. I stood aside for Boris to help him win a massive majority.

“What are they going to do back for me? … I’m not asking them for anything other than – I’ve done them some huge favours over the years as a party. Give me something back. We might have a conversation.”

Sunak policy announcements are clearly designed to win back voters from Reform, who are a threat in Labour-facing seats in the north and Midlands.

Reform is polling at about 12%, with most of its support coming from former Conservative voters who backed Johnson in 2019.

As was the case in 2019, if Reform backed-off from fielding candidates in marginal seats it would of great help to Conservatives defending red-wall constituencies.

However, many of these Tory MPs are now unconvinced by Sunak. The outgoing Tory MP Lucy Allan, who is standing down from her constituency of Telford, said she will be backing Reform UK at the general election.

Allan said: “I have resigned from the Conservative party to support Alan Adams to be Telford’s next MP. I have known Alan for many years and he is genuinely the best person for the job. I want the best for Telford and I can’t just let the Labour candidate have a walkover.”

As a result Allan has been suspended from the Conservative party. Quite what the point is of suspending someone who is standing-down is lost on me, but I suppose it makes them feel better about it.

Farage has made it clear he won’t seek election saying: “…..As honorary president of Reform UK, I am fully supportive of Richard Tice’s leadership and urge voters to put their trust in him and Lee Anderson [the party’s sole MP]. I will do my bit to help in the campaign, but it is not the right time for me to go further than that.”

Farage at heart is a nationalist which he cleverly exploits, strutting around coastal towns such as Dover where immigration appears to be a more prevalent issue.
 

‘most nationalists clearly have issues with Muslims in the UK. You often hear them say that they don’t share British values’

 
If I am charitable, being a nationalist sounds more acceptable than racist. Nevertheless, most nationalists clearly have issues with Muslims in the UK. You often hear them say that they don’t share British values.

I am fascinated by term “British Values”, so I decided to find some definitions of the term:

· Fundamental British Values underpin what it is to be a citizen in a modern and diverse Great Britain valuing our community and celebrating diversity of the UK. These values are Democracy, Rule of Law, Respect and Tolerance, Individual Liberty.

· British values’ are defined under the Prevent duty as: “Democracy, the rule of law, individual liberty and mutual respect and tolerance for those with different faiths and beliefs.”

Having considered the definitions, I struggle to see how populists of either the left or right fit, with the exception of the “I fit British values because I say I do”, approach.

Take individual liberty, whilst they were happy to decry lockdown, demanding the freedom to roam and party, that liberty doesn’t extend to the demonstrations they disapprove of.

“Tolerance for those with different faiths and beliefs”; this seems to fit into the I don’t mind them but not living in my country bucket. Adjectives such as “taking-over”, swarms”, etc., hardly show tolerance.

I do try and put my dislike of Farage to one-side and be constructive. His influence is far-reaching, disproportionate to the votes his parties have been able to muster, and he clearly has the ability to communicate with the man on the street. But, if there is one thing that damns him, it is admiration for Trump, and his desire to help his re-election.
 

“I’m yours, you’re mine
Gimme more of that Jailbird pie”

 

Philip is rumbling forwards, gathering speed as July 4 approaches, and refueling on the move as the hapless Tories continue to pluck incomplete ideas and unfunded policies out of the sky. He does if far better than me:

‘There is apparently an election campaign going on….

The clearest evidence is party leaders doing that “I’m normal thing”. Hi Vis jackets, factories, paddle boards, patronising conversations with people they don’t care about and have nothing in-common with.

The PM grinning insanely, pretending all is right with the world, but then if you are a billionaire it probably is.

If the Tories wheel out Mel Stride for one more breakfast tv appearance I am going to throw something at the telly. Listening to Mel I am torn between they haven’t worked their policies out, but they are still jolly good ideas, or he is just dim!

For Labour its stability, on and on, stability, ad nauseum. One day I am going to wake-up and discover that Starmer and his acolytes have defected to the Tories.

Ahhh, yes, defectors. There are so many defections it feels like a John le Carre novel. George Smiley for PM, and James Bond for foreign secretary.

The latest defector is Mark Logan, who represented Bolton North East until parliament was dissolved, said the Tory party was “now unrecognisable” from the one he joined a decade ago and that Labour could “bring back optimism into British life”.

I have got news for Mark, the Labour party you are joining is also unrecognisable as a labour party!

Which has set me thinking; British politics is moving rightwards. Labour is now further right than the LibDems, which is why One Nation Tories feel comfortable joining them.

The Tories now resemble …..the British National Party?

I touched on this in “Armageddon Time”, and maybe more of this next time.

Lyrically, we start with Japan’s “Quite Life”, cos it’s so quiet out there. To finish, and dedicated to Farage’s idol, the newly convicted Donald Trump, we have Primal Scream and “Jailbird” Enjoy!

Philip.

 

@coldwarsteve
 

Philip Gilbert 2Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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