I’m So Bored With the USA: Appeasement

 

 

“Look into my eyes, I am free You’re just a wannabe”

 

 

Trump, as with any narcissist, loves to be in the headlines, receiving acclaim for his self-declared genius, with the icing on the cake being a Nobel Peace Prize.

 

As is often the case, to win the prize really does require a lasting and just peace. Given the situation with Ukraine, it is difficult to imagine either being the case.

The Ukraine has clearly suffered immense civilian and military casualties, and is the victim of Russian aggression. Their president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has consistently rejected giving up territory and his European allies have reaffirmed their support that Ukraine’s borders must not be altered through force.

Whilst Russia has been prosecuting an illegal war, they have suffered an estimated 1m casualties, which means that Putin simply can’t leave the negotiating table with nothing.

It might be argued that Putin, by splitting NATO, has already won his most significant victory. Since Trump II in January this year, the fundamental bond of trust that underlay the 80-year success of the Trans-Atlantic Economy, that served the US so favourably for decades, has been ruptured. As a result, the global economy could be entering a new era, one that favours Asia and new trade relationships.

Last week’s talk in Alaska confirmed what most people expected; Putin wants territorial concessions, namely that Ukraine withdraw from Donetsk and Luhansk as a condition for ending the war.

After the meeting, Putin repeated that Moscow wanted the “root causes” of the conflict addressed, by which he means a demilitarised Ukraine, restrictions over its domestic politics and no Nato membership.

Prior to the meeting, Trump warned: “I won’t be happy if I walk away without some form of a ceasefire,” and threatening “severe consequences” if Moscow refused to cooperate. After the meeting Trump described the talks as “extremely productive”, despite the fact that Putin’s maximalist demands remained unchanged.

Trump appears to have fallen into line, dropping his plans for an immediate ceasefire, and embracing Putin’s preferred path to ending the war: pushing through a far-reaching agreement before halting any fighting.

“It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up”.

It is reported that Trump told European leaders he believed a peace deal could be negotiated if the Ukrainian president agreed to give up the Donbas region.

Trump’s support for ceding Ukraine’s Donbas region, which is rich in mineral resources, including coal and iron ore, to Russia comes as he voiced support for moving straight to a peace deal and not via a ceasefire, which, Trump said in a social media post on Saturday, “often times do not hold up.”

 

‘Putin gave Trump nothing, but still got everything he wanted’

 

A joint statement issued by European leaders said they were “ready to work with US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy towards a trilateral summit with European support” but “it will be up to Ukraine to make decisions on its territory. International borders must not be changed by force.”

Moscow clearly believes that they have gained the upper-hand, with a member of the Russian foreign policy establishment, saying: “Putin gave Trump nothing, but still got everything he wanted. Trump finally listened to his demands”.

Russian state media and the Kremlin elite made much of Trump rolling out the red carpet and treating Putin as an equal, despite the Russian leader being wanted by The Hague court for war crimes.

Maria Zakharova, foreign ministry spokesperson, said: “Western media are on the verge of completely losing it. For three years they told everyone Russia was isolated and today they saw a beautiful red carpet laid out for the Russian president in the US.”

Back home, Ken Martin, the chair of the Democratic National Committee, said: “Donald Trump has been cozying up to Vladimir Putin for years, and this meeting underscored the depth of his sick obsession with the Russian dictator and accused war criminal.

‘this meeting underscored the depth of his sick obsession with the Russian dictator and accused war criminal’

 

“Trump has been clear that his foreign policy agenda is letting Russia ‘do whatever the hell they want’ – no matter how disastrous for the US and our allies – and when put to the test, Trump embarrassed the United States by folding like a cheap suit.”

Trump is, at heart, a bully, and, like most bullies he folds when someone stands up to him. That was clearly the case in his talks with Putin, Trump simply doesn’t have either the stomach for a fight, or he simply doesn’t care about Ukraine.

The only outstanding question is, will Europe collectively stand-up and support Ukraine? Not just in words, but all the way?

From one bully we turn to another; PM Starmer. Now our PM isn’t going to duke it out with Trump or Putin, as we have seen he prefers softer targets. Pensioners, the disabled, special needs children, and those in his party who don’t agree with him.

 

‘Trump embarrassed the United States by folding like a cheap suit’

 

He latest victim is Hackney North and Stoke Newington MP Diane Abbott, who was suspended from the party in July for repeating that Jewish people do not experience racism in the same way as Black people, a statement that had earned her a previous suspension in April 2023.

At the time Labour said there would be no discussion of potential successor as an investigation was ongoing. However, in an apparent U-turn, Labour’s national executive committee have spoken to potential contenders, giving them informal advice on how to prepare, according to a party source.

One figure on the left of the party said talk of replacing Abbott risked inflaming tensions between the leadership and grassroots members. “There’s no appetite among members for a stitch-up, they would want this to be fair after everything that’s happened.”

The seat is regarded as ultra-safe for Labour, even although her majority last year was halved to 15,000 last year amid a challenge from the Greens.

Interesting term ultra-safe, is that support for Labour or for the MP? I suspect it is the latter, should Abbott stand as an independent, she might well win.

Starmer has long wanted rid of her, she reminds him too much of the past when Labour was Labour, representing the workers, the under-privileged, whereas his version is a confused mishmash of closet Tories.

 

‘she reminds him too much of the past when Labour was Labour, representing the workers, the under-privileged’

 

Another, less obvious bully is Thames Water, who constantly runs rings around the government and regulator doing as it pleases with no concern for its customers.

Thames’s latest mess is their proposed new reservoir in Oxfordshire.

Last year, Thames told the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs that its assessment of probable costs of C.£2.2bn was “robust”. Now, there is always the get out as to how you define robust, in the case of Thames flimsy might be more appropriate. Further tests show that the final bill will be between £5.5bn and £7.5bn, to be paid by Thames customers along with those of Affinity Water and Southern Water.

Thames customers already face a 35% increase in bills over the next five years under a settlement by the sector regulator, Ofwat, while those with Affinity face a 26% lift and with Southern 53%.

This is a classic example of why utilities providers shouldn’t be in private hands. The business has been starved of funds by shareholders demanding dividends, £7.2bn up until 2023.

In July 2024, it was revealed that Thames Water Utilities Ltd paid two fresh dividends worth GBP158.3 million in March.

The dividends come after UK water industry regulator Ofwat had already said it is “minded” to take action against Thames Water for a smaller GBP37.5 million dividend payment in October 2023. Source: https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1720509506972883500/thames-water-pays-gbp158-million-dividend-amid-scramble-for-funding.aspx

Water is a very real issue for us; during the drought of 2022, London came close to running out of water, the as reservoirs ran low and the groundwater was slowly drained off. Last week, the government announced a “nationally significant” water shortage in England.

Forecasts indicate that by 2055 England’s public water supply could be short by 5bn litres a day without action to future-proof resources, the equivalent to more than a third of the supplies available today. The effect on the economy will be profoundly negative. The thinktank Public First has estimated that the economic cost of water scarcity could be £8.5bn over this parliament.

The UK is one of the rainier places in Europe. Some areas are wetter than others. In England, the Lake District generally receives an average of 2,000mm of rainfall a year, while in parts of the SE it is as low as 700mm.

This apparent abundance of water might explain why we use more than other comparable European countries,C.150 litres a day per capita. For France the average is 128, Germany 122 and Spain 120 (although in Italy its 243 litres a day).

However, there is another significant contribution to the problem for the water companies in England and Wales, who lose about 1tn litres, 20% of all treated water, through leaky pipes each year. The water firms have pledged to halve leakages by 2050.

Meanwhile, the annual pipe replacement rate is 0.05% a year across all water companies: much of the sewage system in London, for example, has not been significantly updated since it was installed it in the 19th century.

‘no new reservoir has been built in 30 years despite significant population growth and climate breakdown leading to longer, drier summers’

 

Also, no new reservoir has been built in 30 years despite significant population growth and climate breakdown leading to longer, drier summers. The reservoirs England does have are at their lowest levels in at least a decade, just 67.7% full on average.

England’s water system has been widely criticised, and privatisation has been blamed for a lack of investment in infrastructure, paying out dividends rather than using the money raised by customer bills solely for investment in infrastructure. There is the fact that a privatised regulated monopoly system has prioritised low customer bills over investment.

There is also the regulatory system. Water company drought plans compel firms to follow a series of steps before they can increase abstraction, taking more water from reservoirs, rivers and the ground to supply customers, beginning with reducing consumption, such as hosepipe bans.

Bullying now seems to have become accepted.

Trump doesn’t care that he’s a bully, and, at least for the present, neither do his followers. There will come a time of reckoning for him, most likely when his MAGA supporter base realise that is them who is subsidising his “big, beautiful” tax cuts for his mates.

 

‘Ukraine will be the straw breaks the back of the post-WW2 world order’

 

Overseas, I doubt the majority of them now where Ukraine is, or that there is a war being fort there.

At home, Stamer is running with the hare and the hounds, all loved-up with both Trump and Zelensky, but soon he will have to choose, as, I suspect, land concessions will be the price of Russia ceasing the war.

It isn’t just Starmer, EU leaders, whilst not so buddy-buddy with Trump also have to decide.

It feels like Ukraine will be the straw breaks the back of the post-WW2 world order.

 

 

“I’m becoming this, all I want to do

Is be more like me and be less like you”

 

 

The last few days have been dominated by Ukraine.

Trump wants peace, Russia wants land, and Zelensky doesn’t want to cede any. In this he is supported, at least for now, by Europe and the UK.

Now, it’s who blinks first. Will Europe and the UK leave Ukraine high and dry? Will Trump threaten Russia with sufficient sanctions that could crush its economy forcing Putin to retreat? Or, will Putin just be obdurate?

Putin is winning, he cannot back down and tell his citizens that 1m casualties and deaths were for nothing, therefore he won’t blink first, but Trump will. He doesn’t care, he just wants what he perceives as a win to sell stateside.

Europe holds the key, if their centre holds, then Putin’s bluff will be called, but at the expense of more deaths.

How much we matter in the post-Brexit world is a debate point. At least it means Starmer can still cuddle-up to Trump without fear of contradiction.

Starmer likes his target softer; his latest being Diane Abbott whose politics he loathes as she reminds him of what he was supposed to be.

The last bully is the water industry, who continues to be a law unto themselves.

In “The real question is, who governs?”, I questioned our desperation for dividend at the expense of reinvestment, and the water industry is a classic example, dousing themselves and investors in cash and leaving nothing to maintain their business.

And, people wonder why the country is in decline? Anything that runs for the benefit of the few at the expense of the majority is destined to fail eventually

Lyrically, it’s nu metal week; we start with “Clown” by Korn, and end with “Numb” by Linkin Park.

Enjoy it and be thankful you aren’t Ukrainian!

Philip. 

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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