inequality“Take warning, Father, look to thyself;
storm and strife must thou withstand.” 

 

The madness goes on. Trump now has trade wars with China, Europe (incl UK) and Canada. 

Two days ago, writing on Truth Social, Trump said: “Based on Ontario, Canada, placing a 25% Tariff on ‘Electricity’ coming into the United States, I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to ad [sic] an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD.”  

In response Canada’s finance minister, Dominic LeBlanc, said at a press conference:  

I am announcing that the government of Canada, following a dollar for dollar approach, will be imposing, as of 12.01am, tomorrow, March 13, 2025, 25% reciprocal tariffs on an additional $29.8bn of imports from the United States. 

“This includes steel products worth $12.6bn and aluminum products worth $3bn, as well as additional imported US goods worth $14.2bn for a total of $29.8bn. The list of additional products affected by counter-tariffs includes computers, sports equipment and cast iron products, as examples.” 

The situation continues to degenerate as Trump makes increasingly aggressive threats. Initially, he wanted Canada to crack down on fentanyl, moved onto accusations of them underpaying for military protection, and ,incorrectly, describing the trade imbalance with Canada as a $200bn subsidy from the US. 

Mark Carney, Canada’s incoming prime minister, called Trump’s latest move “an attack on Canadian workers, families and businesses” and promised to “keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect and make credible, reliable commitments to free and fair trade”. 

 

‘The situation continues to degenerate as Trump makes increasingly aggressive threats’

 

Trump, when announcing the revised tariffs added openly aggressive language, repeating his wish to make Canada “our cherished Fifty First State”. He said that this would make “all tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear”, called the border “an artificial line of separation drawn many years ago” and suggested the Canadian national anthem, O Canada, would become a state anthem. 

This utter stupidity has united Canadian politicians, with Carney standing up to Trump, and saying to a standing ovation in his acceptance speech that “Canada never, ever will be part of America”. 

Trump has extended this tariffs to include the EU and UK.  

The EU retaliated, and European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said: “As of this morning, the United States is applying a 25% tariff on imports of steel and aluminium. We deeply regret this measure. 

She said the counter measures “are strong but proportionate”. As the US is applying tariffs worth $28bn, the EU is responding with countermeasures worth €26bn. She added: “In the meantime, we will always remain open to negotiations.” 

Continuing the tit-for-tat, as part of the €26bn includes a 50% levy on bourbon whiskey, Trump is now threatening a 200% tariff on wine and champagne from EU countries. 

In the UK,PM Starmer said Canada is an important ally. On tariffs, he said: “I am disappointed to see global tariffs in relation to steel and aluminium, but we will take a pragmatic approach. 

“We are, as he knows, negotiating an economic deal which covers and will include tariffs if we succeed. 

“But we will keep all options on the table.” 

 

‘Trump is now threatening a 200% tariff on wine and champagne from EU countries’

 

In response to Trump and his tariffs there is a growing international move from Scandinavia to Canada to the UK and beyond to boycott US products. 

European car buyers are boycotting Tesla, whose majority owner, Elon Musk, is a prominent figure in Trump’s administration. About 15% of Tesla’s value was wiped out on Monday alone, their biggest daily decline since 2020. Overall, the shares have more than halved since hitting a peak in December.. 

Trump has vowed to buy a Tesla car in support of Musk, and, writing on Truth Social, Trump accused “Radical Left Lunatics” of “trying to illegally and collusively boycott” the business.  

Canadians have developed apps such as “buy beaver”, “maple scan” and “is this Canadian” to allow shoppers to scan QR barcodes and reject US. 

In addition, the number of Canadians taking road trips to the US had dropped by 23% compared with February 2024, according to Statistics Canada. 

In Sweden, about 40,000 users have joined a Facebook group calling for a boycott of US companies (isn’t Facebook American?) – which features alternatives to US consumer products. 

In Denmark, where there is widespread anger over Trump’s threat to acquire Greenland, the largest grocery company, the Salling group, has said it will tag European-made goods with a black star to allow consumers to choose them over products made in the US. 

 

‘Canadians have developed apps such as “buy beaver”’

 

In Norway their largest oil bunkering operation, the privately owned Haltbakk, announced a boycott of its occasional supplying of fuel to US navy ships. 

Referring to the White House meeting with President Zelenskyy and Trump last month, the company posted on Facebook: “We have today been witnesses to the biggest shit show ever presented “live on TV” by the current American president and his vice-president. 

“Huge credit to the president of Ukraine restraining himself and for keeping calm even though USA put on a backstabbing TV show. It made us sick. 

“As a result, we have decided to [immediately] STOP as fuel provider to American forces in Norway and their ships calling Norwegian ports … We encourage all Norwegians and Europeans to follow our example.” 

For many, the anti-US reaction has comes as a total shock. Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, wrote for the Centre for European Policy Analysis this week: “Nobody – nobody – would have thought that western businesses or consumers would use such tools against America.  

I suspect that Trump thought the same.  

In some ways there are echoes of Brexit in Trump’s ideas;  reversing the perceived adverse impacts of globalisation by setting more restrictive migration and trade policies.  

There are however, internal contradictions in areas such as immigration, between ardent nativists and the techno-futurists. The white nationalism of the former means that they also strongly favour reducing legal migration, while the latter rely heavily on highly skilled south and east Asian immigrants.  

The biggest contradiction is the large tax cuts targeted on the rich, combined with import tariffs that hit lower and middle income households. Those worst impacted will be voters who thought Trump would improve their own living standards. 

It is difficult to see anything other than a hard landing. The country’s fiscal trajectory is already unsustainable. Large tax cuts, combined with undermining the IRS’s ability to collect taxes, and the fact that Musk’s Doge are likely to deliver little cost savings will test markets’ confidence in the status of T-bonds as the ultimate risk-free asset.  

 

‘the systematic dismantling of financial regulation makes another GFC more likely’

 

Also, the systematic dismantling of financial regulation makes another GFC more likely.  

Overseas, trump is still actively trying to cajole Ukraine to seeking peace with Russia. The latest initiative being a 30-day ceasefire. 

However, despite Trump’s assurances that Putin wants peace, this seems far from certain. 

Russian officials in Moscow said that Moscow was unwilling to stop the fighting as its forces this week made rapid gains in reclaiming territory in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine launched a surprise incursion last year. 

“Russia is advancing [on the battlefield] … Any agreements must be on our terms, not American ones … Washington should understand this as well,” the senior Russian senator Konstantin Kosachev wrote on Telegram. “Victory will be ours.”  

Ukraine’s president has said he hopes the US will take “strong steps” against Russia if Moscow fails to support a 30-day ceasefire, saying: 

I understand that we could count on strong steps. I don’t know the details yet but we are talking about sanctions and about strengthening Ukraine,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. 

The whole sad saga was summed-up by a Russian TV anchor and one of Vladimir Putin’s most dependable propagandists, who said: “We support it all. Absolutely. We are thrilled by everything Trump is doing.” 

 

We support it all. Absolutely. We are thrilled by everything Trump is doing.” 

 

The current US-brokered peace suggests that Washington will get access to Ukrainian mineral resources, while Moscow gets a fat slice of Ukraine. Added to this will be the renewing of diplomatic relations and renew commercial ties between the two countries; “an oligarch entente.” 

From America’s perspective, this might help attain their ultimate goal of isolating and containing China. What is equally likely is that Beijing will be the obvious beneficiary of this strategy of “narcissistic commercial protectionism.” 

Both the US and Russia share a common dislike of “LGBT extremism” and last years “child-free propaganda”,  that, to the narrow-minded discourages women from fulfilling their patriotic duty to breed new citizens. 

Putin and Trump share a common resentment of the soft power that Brussels wields through the aggregation of many national markets into one trading bloc. Trump sees the EU as a cartel, denying US farms and businesses their inalienable right to sell to millions of European consumers. For Putin, it is an enemy apparatus, part of the post-cold war western expansion that locked Russia out of its natural sphere of influence. 

But, what of the UK? 

A report by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), found that the UK has tumbled down the league of affluent nations after almost a decade of welfare cuts and stagnant incomes.  

Districts in Birmingham were ranked as the poorest in the UK, according to the study, and below the poorest areas of Finland, France, Malta and Slovenia. 

‘the UK has tumbled down the league of affluent nations after almost a decade of welfare cuts and stagnant incomes’

 

NIESR has championed policies to reduce poverty, arguing that studies show they boost growth and the nation’s wellbeing. The institute has criticised budget rules that limit the scope for extra taxes and borrowing. 

A lack of productivity growth was to blame for much of the fall in living standards after the GFC. The average UK worker is about 20% less productive than their French and German counterparts and 30% less productive than US workers, it said. 

The institute said it estimated that achieving the same rise in productivity as the US would make UK workers “more than £4,000 better off today”. 

PM Starmer is facing a rebellion over his plans to cut billions from the rising welfare bill and threatening to vote against freezing disability benefits. 

Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, is now expected to announce the plans in a Commons statement early next week. Government insiders acknowledged that she will have a “hard argument to make” over disability benefits, but believe that the bill for disability benefits, which rose by nearly £13bn to £48bn between 2019-20 and 2023-24, is unsustainable. 

The harsh reality is that this is, in-part, Trump induced. Savings are needed to fund increased defence spending. 

Labour aside, there is the ongoing spat inside Reform between Messrs Farage and Lowe. 

The latest development is that the ousted Lowe could join forces in a breakaway right-wing party with MEP Ben Habib, a former deputy leader of the party who was also forced out by Farage. 

Habib, who ran for Reform in last year’s Wellingborough and Rushden byelection, quit the party last year citing concerns over the way it was run.  

Habib said: “I see no way back [into Reform] for Rupert, but Rupert is hugely popular. He has the backing of hundreds of thousands of people across the country. The country is crying out for people who are solid.” 

 

‘Elon Musk, who, although supporting Reform, posted that Farage “doesn’t have what it takes”’

 

Lowe was cited as a potential replacement for Farage as leader of Reform by the billionaire Elon Musk, who, although supporting Reform, posted that Farage “doesn’t have what it takes” – linked to the leader’s refusal to back the case of the far-right activist Tommy Robinson. 

This week, the FT reported that sources close to said he might be persuaded to fund a splinter party on the right with a hardline stance on mass deportations, which Lowe has promoted. 

It’s becoming fun to observe the posturing and grandstanding of these Reform and ex-Reform people. Especially as their chum in the US is demonstrating the foolishness of their policies. 

Pure schadenfreude! 

 

 

Men of peace justsaid, “The state of the world is war”
No, we won’tbeled,no business we’redyin’ for 

 

 

Notes: 

  1. “Twilight of the gods”. Figuratively, the term is extended to situations of world-altering destruction marked by extreme chaos and violence. 

 

‘Trump just gets more angry, more vengeful, and more stupid. This whole thing has degenerated into farce. Although, farce isn’t usually so dark.

Whilst there will be numerous twists and turns before the end-game, some things are becoming clearer.

Domestically, the US seems set for recession, markets are nervous, and, with trade wars escalating and tax cuts still to come, its hard to reach any other conclusion.

Tariffs spill over into foreign policy, Russia and Israel aside, the US is becoming increasingly isolated.

This is the final proof that Populist Nationalism doesn’t work. This should have knock-on effects elsewhere with overseas Trump tribute acts. Within this we have our own Reform.

The pollsters “More In Common” did some research amongst voters in Merthyr Tydfil and Dudley – the former held by Labour for a century, the latter a “red wall” seat Labour lost in 2019 and regained last year.

Clearly voters in both are disenchanted; Britain is a “broken”, “depressing” and “ripped off” country. One said: “All the services are down; they are cutting, cutting, cutting, but they keep increasing taxes.”

Another said: “No matter who gets in, whether it be Reform, Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem … they just backtrack on their promises.”

On the PM, one said: “He’s promised the earth and he’s done nothing”.  Another said: “He overpromised and underdelivered.”

Whilst that isn’t great, the PM fared better than Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch: “I’ve never heard of him.”

It wasn’t all praise for Farage either. “He hasn’t done anything so far. What’s he done apart from say things?” Or, “He’s like Trump. I can’t take him seriously.”

Labour and Conservative may have failed, but the questions remain; Can Reform convince the public they represent the change that people want to see – able not just to talk immigration – but stand up to big business too? How can they put the UK first – but without the chaos and bullying of Trump?

Lyrically we run the gamut of emotions from A-Z. We start with Act 2 of “Die Walküre” by Richard Wagner libretto. And, just to keep everyone on their toes, we finish with “Frontier Glitch” by Strike Anywhere.

Enjoy it. I am!

Philip’

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

Philip Gilbert 2Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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