I’m So Bored With the USA: Holidays in Gaza  

 

“A cheap holiday in other people’s misery!” 

 

 

Keen observers will note that “Mr Brightside” has been retired, it might be more accurate to say that he never actually started. The name of the column was decided in June, after Starmer’s electoral victory, when I had high hopes that he might prove to be just that. Seven-months on, dim, dull and dour might have been more appropriate. 

 

Now, with the coronation of King Donald, the world is a very different place. Whether or not I, or anyone else likes it, the story is America; where they go we will likely follow. 

I will be quite honest I don’t greatly care for America or Americans. I can take those from NYC and LA, and some of the other cities. But, you only have to watch a Trump rally to see what the rest are. There’s a gap like the grand canyon between their ears! 

This is whole god bless America thing is so tedious….    

Trump, after casting his greedy eyes over the Panama Canal, Greenland and Canada, has now come up with another genius idea that should destabilise the Middle East for another 20-yrs, promising that the US will “take over” Gaza and “own it”, effectively endorsing the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians. 

 

‘I will be quite honest I don’t greatly care for America or Americans’

 

Trump claims that Gaza could become the “Riviera of the Middle East”, and hasn’t denied the deployment of  US troops, saying “as far as Gaza is concerned, we’ll do what is necessary.” 

This crazy landgrab followed his earlier plan to permanently resettle the 2-million Palestinians living in Gaza, calling on Jordan, Egypt and other Arab states to take them in. 

There was no explanation as to how and under what authority the US could take over the land of Gaza, but it seems that he views this as a long-term occupation: “I do see a long-term ownership position and I see it bringing great stability to that part of the Middle East and maybe the entire Middle East”. He appeared to suggest that he had the support of  regional leaders, saying; “Everybody I’ve spoken to loves the idea of the United States owning that piece of land”. 

From what I read the latter clearly isn’t true. The Saudi government stressed its rejection of any attempt to displace Palestinians from their land and said it would not establish relations with Israel without establishment of a Palestinian state. 

Netanyahu, the Israeli PM, was clearly delighted, praising Trump as “the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House”, saying this was “something that could change history”. 

Of course Benny was pleased, he must think all his Hanukkah’s have come at once! 

 

‘Of course Benny was pleased, he must think all his Hanukkah’s have come at once!‘

 

Just went you think Trump can’t sink any lower he does; this time it is the dead in the Potomac air disaster who are pawns in the game. 

From outset, the Trump administration looked to blame the Federal Aviation Administration (“FAA”). Within hours of the disaster, Trump began posting his own provocative version of the questions he believes are posed by the crash, and concluded that the crash “looks like it should have been prevented. NOT GOOD!!!” 

From outset, Trump has been picked fights with the FAA over safety. Last week, in an executive order, he ordered it to end the diversity, equity and inclusion rules in its hiring policy. He also ordered the agency to review the performance and standards of all FAA employees in “critical safety positions”.  

This all appears to be part of a plan to slash the federal workforce, truncating its regulatory functions as part of his assault on the role and power of government, hidden behind a smokescreen of anti-diversity propaganda. Given that disasters such as this should reinforce the need for trusted air traffic control system, you would expect people to be suitably outraged.  

This is just a part of his attempts to usurp Congress’s control over spending, and centralise financial power with himself. This, in itself, is likely to provoke a constitutional crisis. 

Should he succeed, he would have the authority to shut down government programmes at will, including those funded by Congress, giving him the ability to slash federal spending and taxes while pretending to balance the books. This would be no more than an exercise in robbing the poor to enrich the wealthy. Thus endorsing the appearance that he is going to allow the uber-rich to do whatever they want, with little or no oversight, at the expense of the majority.  

 

‘Just went you think Trump can’t sink any lower he does’

 

A clear sign of his intentions was the removal of a top-ranking Treasury official who had been blocking his billionaire crony, Elon Musk, from accessing the federal payment system. Access to such a system would expose the sensitive personal data of millions of Americans, as well as details of public contractors who compete directly with Mr Musk’s businesses. The system disburses over $5tn annually. 

As a measure of what could happen we can look to Trump’s initial moves: freezing trillions in federal spending – particularly on foreign aid, non-governmental organisations, “DEI initiatives”, “woke gender ideology” and the “Green New Deal”. The courts blocked the measure as unconstitutional but this was a first-step and a clear challenge. Musk is also proposing to close the US agency for international aid (“USAid”), again this remains uncertain as a federal body is legally required to administer aid. 

Trump is claiming that the executive has the right to unilaterally halt spending, referred to as “impoundment” authority. Perhaps this is just more posturing, as we saw with the imposition of tariffs on Mexico which resulted in negotiations. 

The tariffs he imposing solve nothing, as was proven during his first term, where they became little more than a self-inflicted wound. The net result of his tariffs was akin to $80bn in new “taxes” on Americans, and supply-chains simply rerouted to Vietnam and Indonesia rather than creating domestic jobs.  

The Tax Foundation estimated that this was a 0.2% hit to GDP and 142,000 job losses. Rather that rebuilding US manufacturing, his America First trade strategy just drove up costs. 

We can add to that retaliatory action. Within minutes of the US 10% trade tariffs against China coming into effect, China announced an anti-trust investigation into Google, and the finance ministry announced 15% tariffs on coal and liquefied natural gas, and 10% on crude oil, farm equipment, large-displacement vehicles and pickup trucks from the US. 

In addition, to “safeguard national security interests” they are imposing export controls on a raft of critical minerals: tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, molybdenum and ruthenium-related items. 

Alongside this China is adding two US companies, PVH Group and Illumina Inc to its unreliable entity list, opening them to restrictions or penalties. PVH is a clothing company that owns brands including Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein. Illumina is a biotech company specialising in genomic sequencing that recently partnered with Nvidia on health-related AI tech. 

As the trade wars begin, what of the UK? We appear not to be a target. Maybe we are too insignificant? Or, maybe he sees us as being compliant? We are also getting sympathy from Trump as the EU has “treated us so terribly”. 

 

‘We appear not to be a target. Maybe we are too insignificant?’

 

Even if we do avoid direct tariffs, as a very open economy we are vulnerable to slowdowns in international trade flows. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility assessed the risks to the UK of rising global geopolitical tensions in its fiscal risks report in 2022, concluding that an all-out global trade war could depress GDP by 5%, though the damage would build up gradually, over more than a decade. 

Our own pound-shop Trump, Nigel Farage and his Reform hordes, are riding high in the polls. The latest YouGov research shows Reform with 25% of the vote, Labour on 24% (-3) while the Conservatives take 21% (-1). The Lib Dems and Greens are unchanged on 14%, and 9% respectively. 

To celebrate, Farage has been opining on our relations with the EU, and why he did not see it as a good move for Labour to seek closer trading ties with the bloc after pledging to do so in its manifesto. 

“You can have negotiations, you can be friendly, you can do all those things. But if we start to tie ourselves to industrial collaboration, as appears was agreed last night, then we find ourselves with less flexibility in doing deals with countries like America.” 

Asked about polls showing that many Britons want closer ties with the EU, Farage said: “We voted to leave. That was very, very clear. We can be friendly, we can be co-operative.” 

When asked what that means in practice, he replied; “Well, I think the deal that was negotiated by the Johnson government wasn’t a very good one. We can improve on that.” 

The Reform UK leader said that “industrial collaboration” with the EU will give the UK “less flexibility” to make a deal with the US. 

In other words we will do what Trump tells us. 

Labour, like the Tories before them are falling into the Reform trap. Eighty-nine Labour MPs from the constituencies where Reform came second, have set up a pressure group urging PM Starmer to take a tougher stance on migration and crime. 

One MP involved in the discussions, said: “There is a major focus now on how to beat Reform. Various groups have been set up and we have been talking to Downing Street about what works. One of our main messages to the leadership is we need to do more on illegal migration especially.” 

A small group is planning a trip to Germany to find out what they can learn from the rise of the far-right AfD, which is expected to perform well in the country’s election later this month. 

There are two things they need to understand.. 

Firstly, as Germany, Austria and Holland prove mainstream parties becoming more right-wing and embracing those policies doesn’t work. All you do is add credibility to what was previously viewed as racism, and voters are then more drawn to extremists. 

Secondly, immigration isn’t the actual problem, it’s being made the problem by fascists spotting an opportunity. The real problem is inequality, the majority feel poor.  

Messrs Starmer and Reeves, like their Tory predecessors, are failing to understand capitalism’s central flaw: that without government intervention, wealth accumulates for those at the top while many feel abandoned below. 

 

‘The real problem is inequality, the majority feel poor’

 

The majority don’t believe, or care about mythical growth policies. This is a Labour government, they should start acting like one, redistributing wealth. 

What the polls tell us is simple; people have given-up with mainstream parties. The feel excluded, without a future, populists offer them hope. Probably, no hope and Bob Hope! 

Reform have leapfrogged the Tories whose support is, at best flat-lining, as fade into irrelevance.  

For many voters, all the mainstream parties have offered is a diet of austerity, deepening social division and fuelling the discontent that led to the disaster of vote “Leave”. 

Starmer is the first PM to attend a European Council meeting since Brexit. Whilst closer ties with the EU would benefit us and are increasingly popular, they also reinforce the perception that Labour represents the status quo, and is endorsing immigration. This plays into Nigel Farage’s hands. 

Farage may have been a key player in the disaster that is Brexit, but, by being outside of government, he has escaped blame. All the time he plays the anti-establishment card, posing as a new broom offering hope to those he pretends to identify with Their frustration are his frustrations, as he voices their discontent, pointing the finger and finding new scapegoats. Immigrants replacing the EU as his whipping-boy  

 

‘without a future, populists offer them hope. Probably, no hope and Bob Hope!’

 

As with his contemporaries across Europe he has turning his attention to climate change calling for the scrapping of net zero targets, portraying green policies as elite-driven burdens on working people.  

Labour needs to look to Farage and learn how to communicate. He offers hope, inspires confidence, they offer a sea of misery. 

Labour, in their confusion, have become a mass of contradictions; the “Green Chancellor” is now embracing air travel and North Sea oil exploration. Promised welfare reforms have become an attack on benefit fraud. Not only does this hurt vulnerable individuals and disproportionately targeting benefit claimants while larger-scale fraud goes unaddressed, it endorses Reform’s own rhetoric about “scroungers”. 

 

‘the “Green Chancellor” is now embracing air travel and North Sea oil exploration’

 

Labour needs to understand that, whilst Farage offers hope, that is all. There is no substance, no actual solutions. As with Trump, Reform will shrink the state and lower taxes. This isn’t new, we have been doing this since 1980, all it has created is the inequality that, paradoxically, drives Farage’s popularity. 

Trump, Farage, et al, offer only smoke and mirrors, scapegoats, driven by anger rather than solutions. It works in opposition because it creates discontent, once in government it is exposed for what it is; hollow rhetoric. They thrive on creating chaos to strengthen their grip on power, and seeking to create the perception of dominance in the hope that the majority will simply accept it. 

To defeat them require more than technocratic governments. There needs to be a vision, communicated with passion that offers hope. Once the barbarians have a grip on power they will be difficult to dislodge.  

 

“A holiday in Cambodia 
Where the slums got so much soul” 

 

‘Whatever you think about the US/Trump has to be factored in

The UK is just already a sea of doom and gloom. An interest cut, to match a cut in growth expectations, with a side of rising inflation. As an equation, solve for stagflation.

It really stretches the imagination to see any improvement. Whilst we might be good boys and let off tariffs by a rampant US, our trade can only be impacted therefore we might end-up importing inflation and seeing our trade constricted

We have changed government in name only; it’s still balanced budgets and growth all funded by spending cuts. And a hard turn to the right; benefits claimants could be fraudulent, get tough on immigration.

As Labour support tumbles, there is no increase in support for the Tories. Both parties  appear tired, out-of-inspiration, and the electorate can sense that. The leader is the newcomer, Reform. And, don’t say this column hasn’t warned you.

It will be interesting to see how the British electoral system works for them, but expect them to have a place in government in the future.

What will they bring?

Well, they won’t be quite as wild as Trump. We don’t have the muscle for imperialism and trade wars. But, expect to see them mirror Trump, dismantling the state and cutting taxes as we chase growth. It’s called neoliberalism, it’s been tried before, and, if you’re a rentier it’s happy days, as for the rest, well … .too bad.

Perhaps, Trump’s experiment with dismantling the state and tax cuts will show that all this policy achieves is greater inequality.

Trump might be able to survive the increased inequality and rising inflation caused by his trade tariffs. Firstly, he will bang the imperialism drum as he annexes whatever country takes his fancy, and the US necessary clout to survive a trade war.

Secondly, we are assuming the US stays a democracy. Perhaps Trump will create a Putin style democracy, where you have elections but the result is known in advance. As for the opposition, let’s just say they will be actively discouraged.

What we are seeing is everything I have warned against.

Lyrically, I could think of nothing more fitting for Trump’s Gaza Rivera than the Sex Pistols “Holidays in the Sun”. We exit with the equally apt “Holidays in Cambodia” by the Dead Kennedys.

Is there anything to enjoy?

Philip.’

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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