inequalityIn the city there’s a thousand men in uniforms
And I’ve heard they now have the right to kill a man 

 

 

Inevitably we start with Trump’s decision to bomb Iran, whose nuclear facilities were “completely and totally obliterated.”  

 

His most senior military official, Dan Caine, was more considered, saying: it was “way too early” to know the full outcome despite severe damage. 

Whatever the outcome of the mission, Israeli PM Netanyahu completely played Trump. Israel had started something they couldn’t finish, and Trump fell for their sycophancy and did their dirty work for them. 

We must now wait and see if this hastens Iran’s plans, and what form any retaliation  might take. 

As I wrote in “The World According to King Donald”, the US director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard doubts that Iran was even developing a bomb. 

Trump had promised to “stop the chaos in the Middle East” and “prevent world war three”, now he warns of “either peace or … tragedy for Iran” if it does not end uranium enrichment. Israel may have got what they wanted in the short-term, but this clearly further destabilises the region. 

I did wonder the legality of countries just bombing another as they didn’t like the look of them, and it would appear, that the actions of both Israel of the US cannot be justified under international law’s self-defence doctrine.  

Trump has rejected diplomacy and, by choosing war, is embracing pre-emptive strikes, a fact that won’t be lost on the likes of Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others.  

 

‘Trump has rejected diplomacy and, by choosing war, is embracing pre-emptive strikes, a fact that won’t be lost on the likes of Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others’

 

 

Today, in a meeting with Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, Putin said: “The absolutely unprovoked aggression against Iran has no basis and no justification.” 

Domestically, Trump actions are was another example of both his disregard for public opinion; 60% of Americans opposed military involvement in the conflict between Israel and Iran, according to an Economist/ YouGov poll released on 17 June – and his contempt for Congress. 

Democrats have pointed out that his actions were a clear violation of the constitution, which grants Congress the power to declare war on foreign countries. There was no evidence of an imminent threat to the US that might have provided grounds for Trump to act unilaterally. 

Trump also breached protocol, by not informing leading national security Democrats until after he announced them on social media. 

Several Democrats have called for Congress to pass a measure based on the War Powers Act that seeks to block “unauthorized hostilities” in Iran. Congresswoman Summer Lee of Pennsylvania called it a necessary step to “rein in this out-of-control, wannabe dictator”. Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York called for Trump’s impeachment. 

For our part, David Lammy, the foreign secretary, repeatedly refused to say if the UK supported the US military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on Saturday, and when asked three times if the airstrikes were legal, said it was for Washington to answer such questions. 

PM Starmer, has called for de-escalation, after referring to the very escalation he wishes to avoid – the US’s involvement – as an alleviation of the “grave threat” posed by Iran, and is building up UK forces in the Middle East. 

It will be interesting to see what economic consequences there might be as a result of Israel and America hostilities. 

 

‘the foreign secretary, repeatedly refused to say if the UK supported the US military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on Saturday’

 

 

Last week, Wael Sawan, the CEO of Shell, warned of risks that a blockage in the strait of Hormuz could shock the energy market. C.25% of the world’s oil trade passes through the strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. 

Reacting to the growing risk has seen the daily price of chartering a very large crude carrier ( defined as  carrying 2m barrels of oil), from the Gulf to China rose from $19,998 two days before Israel’s attack on Iran last week to $47,609 on Wednesday (18-06). 

Source: Clarksons Research via the Financial Times. 

 

Andrew Bailey , the BoE’s governor, who had previously warned that the pace of rate cuts looked uncertain due to Trump’s trade wars, said the prospect of a fresh conflict in the Middle East is likely to negatively impact interest rate cuts.  

We can look back to the 1970s and see the impact that the oil price shock that accompanied the Yom Kippur war between Israel and its neighbours which led to the cost of crude rising fourfold in a matter of months. This killed off the post-WW2 boom, leading first to higher inflation and then to recession. A second dose of stagflation arrived a few years later when the Iran-Iraq war led to a further doubling of oil prices. Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 again led to higher oil prices and weaker activity.  

At present the change is more muted; Crude Oil WTI has risen from $68 to $73 in the past 10-days, (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil 

In the 1970s Opec, a producers’ cartel, had more direct impact on prices that it does today, with some countries, including the US, less dependent on imported oil than they once were, and alternatives to fossil fuels. The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has had only a small and short-lived impact on oil prices. 

Having said, only 3-yrs ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine, there was a surge in global oil and gas prices, contributing to a cost of living crisis that is only just abating. However, a comparison between the situation in Ukraine and Iran is somewhat misleading as Russia accounts for 17% of global gas production, while Iran is responsible for just 4% of oil production and China is the biggest customer for its crude exports. 

 

‘the daily price of chartering a very large crude carrier ( defined as  carrying 2m barrels of oil), from the Gulf to China rose from $19,998 two days before Israel’s attack on Iran last week to $47,609 on Wednesday (18-06)’

 

 

Ultimately, this is just more proof that countries like the UK need to make themselves self-sufficient in renewable energy and thus reduce their exposure to the Middle East’s fossil fuels. History shows that the he damage caused to economies by repeated oil shocks, and none have ended well. 

Trump’s actions shouldn’t be a surprise, they are just another example of how he is taking the US towards authoritarianism. 

 

The attack on Iran can be added to his ever growing rap sheet, along with: 

 

  • A succession of opposition politicians, including Alex Padilla, a US senator, handcuffed and arrested by heavy-handed law enforcement after questioning authority or voicing dissent. 
  • A judge is arrested in her own courthouse and charged with helping a defendant evade arrest 
  • Masked snatch squads arresting people in public in a manner clearly designed to intimidate 
  • Deploying the military on a dubious legal premise. 
  • A senior presidential aide announces that habeas corpus could be suspended. 

 

Trump is throwing authoritarian punches at a much greater rate than any of these other cases in their first year in power,” said Steven Levitsky, Harvard political scientist and author, with Daniel Ziblatt, of How Democracies Die. “But we don’t yet know how many of those punches will land or how society will respond.” 

Some analysts have doubts about the judiciary’s capacity to act as a democratic safeguard, despite a wave of legal challenges to the president’s executive orders. There is a  6-3 conservative majority in the supreme court, which, historically has sided with the president who appointed three of its justices during his first term. 

Trump, who has previously expressed admiration for Putin, was said by Eric Rubin, a former US ambassador to Bulgaria and acting ambassador to Moscow: “This is going faster than Putin even came close to going in terms of gradually eliminating democratic institutions and democratic freedoms. It took him years. We’re not even looking at six months here.” 

Key to whether Trump can tilt America decisively into authoritarianism will be his efforts to assert control over the armed forces, argued Levitsky: “Trump’s ramping up of the effort to politicize the military can still go in multiple directions. It could be really ugly and bad, because the only way that you can get from where we are to real authoritarianism like Nicaragua or Venezuela or Russia is if Trump has the military and security forces on his side, and he’s taken steps in that direction.” 

Levitsky, said the administration – spearheaded by Stephen Miler, the powerful White House deputy chief of staff – had adopted a practice of declaring emergencies to acquire potentially dictatorial powers. 

Brendan Nyhan, a professor at Dartmouth College, warned that Senate Republicans are unlikely to vote in sufficient numbers to remove him from office in the event of him being impeached by a Democratic-controlled House. 

The Founding Fathers anticipated Trump precisely,” he said, referring to the constitutional provision to try and remove a president and other officials for “high crimes and misdemeanors”. 

“It was just assumed that Congress will jealously guard its prerogatives and impeach and remove any president who exceeded the boundaries of the constitution. But in our current political system, that is a seemingly impossible task. 

“So we face the prospect of a lawless authoritarian continuing to act for the next three and a half years, and there’s a great deal of damage he can do in that time.” 

Perhaps we can take some consolation that, with the “No Kings” protests, there is now clear public opposition to Trump. It was estimated that turnout for protest over the weekend 14-15th June was between 4-6m, equivalent to 1.2-1.8% of the US population. 

If there is to be battleground it will be in the cities. 

Members of the Trump administration have already said “Los Angeles has been invaded and occupied by Illegal Aliens”; a city of criminals” and “socialists”. His deputy chief of staff, Stephen Miller said  “Mob violence” was so disrupting the work of the federal government there, claimed his, that an “insurrection” was under way. Trump promised: “We will liberate Los Angeles and make it free, clean and safe again.” 

 

We will liberate Los Angeles and make it free, clean and safe again.”

 

 

Populists have problems with cities and city-dwellers; in 2014 Nigel Farage complained that he could not “hear English” on an inner London train. Cities are totally at odds with populism, they are often where the future starts, whereas populists try to hold onto the past. 

Populism is based on the nation state, the countryside, community, social continuity and the traditional family, whereas cities are often places of more fluid loyalties. Populism has simple battlelines, “the people” versus their enemies. By comparison, cities are more diverse, representing a mix of many different interest groups in one place, making everything more complex. There is the need for cooperation over space and resources, and the need to accept many social forces, including class, gender, sexuality, local pride and race. 

Populists struggle with change; LA, for years was, despite  its laid-back image, a highly conservative place: racially segregated, repressively policed, ruled by Republican mayors as much as Democrats. “Immigration, radical activism, more progressive administrations and liberal gentrification gradually altered the city so that now, while still often shaped by inequalities, it is a stronghold of the centre left”. This is equally true of European cities such as Paris and London. 

Today, cities require a more macro form of government than the “broad-brush, administratively chaotic politics of Trump, Farage and Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives don’t seem well suited to such tasks.” 

Populism is broadbrush politics applied via soundbites. Cities are useful for them as targets to stir up their voters.  

Contemporary LA and California, may symbolise everything Trump and his hordes despise but the state is now the world’s fourth largest economy, which might just help a president whose own economic plans’ are bust. 

Not that King Donald is going bust anytime soon, he is full moneymaking mode; since his re-election campaign began, Trump is estimated to have more than doubled his net worth to $5.4bn. He even has his own brand mobile phone! 

It’s a new hyper-reality that exists in America,” says marketing-PR guru Mark Borkowski. “It’s about turning political fandom into money, and he’s laughing all the way to the bank. He’s doing exactly what was expected. Nobody in Trump’s heartland sees this as damaging – it’s what they expect a deal-maker to do. The absurdity of everything Trump does is the point.”  

In summary, Trump is just running riot, doing whatever he wants, whenever he wants, whilst the vast majority just looks on, a few tut, some hold their noses. It’s the 1930’s rerun, just as I have always said! 

 

“Jenny turns and looks away
Her mind upon a basement out of the U.S.A.
She says, “Let’s talk about the future now, we’ve put the past away” 

 

Unfortunately, it looks like the majority of what I predicted about the Trump regime is coming to pass.

Economically, his policies are a bust. His great negotiating skills are a myth.

But, crucially he still has red meat to throw to his hordes. The immigration situation in the cities continues to be inflamed by ongoing rhetoric from the government based on lies. But then, when was the truth ever necessary, if the lie suits peoples requirements?

Bombing Iran might also help him. There is nothing right-wing hordes like more than foreigner bashing. Iran comes with added bonuses, its payback for 1979, and they are Musim.

Equally, Iran could really be his undoing, contravening international and US law. If anyone actually cares.

Putin’s response was interesting, seemingly supporting Iran, whilst noting that if Donald can break international law he can continue doing so, too.

Europe’s response was simply acceptance. They found out after the event and, oh well, what can we do?

It’s hard to see how any of this ends well.

Opposition to Trump in the US will likely lead to more abuse of power, including further use of the national guard and the army. The latter might end up as kingmakers; do they pick their chief or the constitution.

Globally, we are seeing the creation of an axis of evil; strong dictators doing what they want.

Lyrically, we return to 1970’s punk, starting with “In The City” by the Jam, and ending with Elvis Costello and Less Than Zero.

Much to ponder and little to enjoy! Philip.

 

 @coldwarsteve

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert 2Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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