I’m So Bored With the USA: Malice Aforethought 

 

“And stop apologising
For the things you’ve never done” 

 

We start with the German election which threw up no real surprises, with the CDU/CSU candidate, Friedrich Merz, preparing to try and form a coalition government after polling C. 29% of the vote

 

The success of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (“AfD”) who received C.21% of the votes cast and finished second, nearly doubling its result at the last election in 2021, is likely to complicate formation of a government. However, all the mainstream parties have pledged to maintain a “firewall” barring formal cooperation with the anti-migrant, pro-Kremlin AfD, 

The AfDs success wasn’t unexpected and was driven by the cost-of-living and immigration. 

Trump hailed the election’s outcome, saying: “Much like the USA, the people of Germany got tired of the no-common-sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration. This is a great day for Germany.” 

Whilst Merz was quite blunt, saying Trump had made it “clear that [his] government is fairly indifferent to Europe’s fate” and that Germany would have to wait to see “whether we will still be able to speak about Nato in its current form” when the alliance meets for its next summit in June. 

“For me, the absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA.” 

This was a typical western European election for this century: centrist parties fared historically badly, the far right gained, and the party system fragmented further. 

 

‘the absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA’

 

Yes, there was a swing to the right, but it was much smaller than expected with a campaign focused on immigration and the role of the far right. A combination that has proved to be the perfect breeding ground for recent far-right victories in Sweden in 2022 and the Netherlands in 2023. 

As Dr Cas Mudde wrote today: “Rather than declaring the minority that voted for the far right to be “the” German people, the centrist parties should accept and address the pluralism of Germany’s population.” 

Government for the 80% who voted for liberal democracy rather than for the 20% who voted against it. 

Of more interest, was the success of the far-left Linke who achieved >8% of the total vote. 

The AfD and Linke, in-line with other populist parties, did well with Gen Z voters, who seem to have given up on the traditional parties. As with Labour in the UK, Germany’s traditional parties are still playing catch-up when it comes to using social media and podcasts. 

What is also apparent is that governments will be increasingly under pressure to deliver quick results, and there are no second chances. Something I covered in “Tick-tock, Tick-tock.” 

Trump is becoming increasingly delusional; claims that President Zelenskyy’s popularity ratings was just 4%, that he had assumed the role of dictator by not holding elections., that Ukraine had started the war, and that the US had given more than three times as much aid to Ukraine than the rest of Europe combined, was almost a script written by Vladimir Putin. 

This is just more disinformation and seems to be supportive of Russia’s ongoing interference via bot farms, misinformation, fake news and idiots who repeat their talking points. It’s effective but only for the minority; the 20-25% who vote for populists. 

 

‘Trump is becoming increasingly delusional’

 

The stupidity of Trump’s claims are clear; Zelenskyy’s approval rating is 57%: about 10% higher than the Donald’s own, no one in their right mind expects Ukraine to hold elections during a war, just we didn’t during WW2. Lastly, his aid figures are also way off; collectively, Europe has given Ukraine £132bn since the start of the war. America £114bn. 

Trumps comment that, “Today I heard, ‘oh, well, we weren’t invited.’ Well, you’ve been there for three years … You should have never started it. You could have made a deal”, will live long in the memory. This might actually be the inflection point, the point where Europe, China, Canada, and others see Trump and the US for what they are. It feels like the America’s fall of the Roman empire time in high. 

Zelenskyy, for his part, is standing up to Trump, even daring to say what other European leaders wouldn’t. Trump, he observed, is “trapped in this disinformation bubble”.  

The majority of Europe’s leader have sided with Ukraine. Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, tweeted: “Together with European Foreign Ministers, I spoke to [US secretary of state Marco Rubio] after his talks in Riyadh. Russia will try to divide us. Let’s not walk into their traps. By working together with the US, we can achieve a just and lasting peace – on Ukraine’s terms.” 

Canada, or the 51st state, seem to have a special dislike of Trump, but then he does want to annex them. 

Last week, the Canadian ice hockey team stood at the blue line, arm in arm, player and coach, wearing their championship hats while the maple leaf flag was lowered behind the 4 Nations Face-Off trophy and the national anthem reverberated across the Americans’ home ice. The fact that Canada triumphed 3-2 over the US just made it better. 

 

‘Canada, or the 51st state, seem to have a special dislike of Trump, but then he does want to annex them’

 

 
Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau posted on X “You can’t take our country – and you can’t take our game”. Earlier Trump had called him, ‘Governor Trudeau’. 

Canadian feelings are so strong that before the game, Chantal Kreviazuk changed a lyric in their national anthem,  “O Canada”,  from “in all of us command” to “that only us command”. Kreviazuk told the AP she did it “because I believe in democracy, and a sovereign nation should not have to be defending itself against tyranny and fascism”. 

Domestically, Trump is causing our poundshop version, Nigel Farage, a few problems. 

Most of the British public favour Zelensky/Ukraine over Russia/ Putin. About 80% of voters who back the three other mainstream parties believe the UK should at least maintain its support for Zelenskyy. Reform voters see it differently, less than half agree with this, and 10% of Farage’s strongest supporters want Russia to win.  Appealing to the silent majority and the far right is no easy task. 

While Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and Ed Davey all swiftly condemned Trump’s comments last week, Farage took a little longer to find his voice, perhaps he had to extricate his tongue from somewhere…? 
 

‘Trump’s foreign policy has a focus on reshaping Europe in his own light, to allow him to carve-up the globe with his acolytes’

 

Even when it came it was somewhat lacking: “You should always take ­everything Donald Trump says seriously. You shouldn’t always take things that Donald Trump says absolutely literally.”  

He continued, saying that Zelenskyy was “not a dictator”, but keep in with Trump  by saying: “But, but! It’s only right and proper that Ukrainians have a timeline for elections.” 

The French foreign minister summed-up the situation very well. The discussion is not a clash between north and south, but between those that support the law and those that support power by force. 

Trump’s foreign policy has a focus on reshaping Europe in his own light, to allow him to carve-up the globe with his acolytes. 

Hungary is already there, as is Austria and, possibly Holland. Italy has Meloni but she appears to be her own person, and I can see her looking to Europe and the EU. US foreign policy post-WW2 was bad enough for Italy, I doubt they will want a repeat. 

Germany and France are the prizes, with the Afd and le Pen. The UK isn’t part of the EU and Trump might see us as alone, and therefore largely irrelevant, although I think, perhaps hope might be more accurate, that Trump’s action, which are driving Europe to spend more and cooperate closer on defence, will push us closer to Europe. 

My own view is that I think the Trump/Musk/Putin axis has overplayed it’s hand and, as a result, may fail. Their message has been clear, they want to destabilise Europe and the electorate don’t that. Far-right parties might continue to have some influence over the narrative, but 20-25% could be their electoral limit. 

Trump, by cosying up to Putin has shown himself to be weak, all talk, and, at the same time, he has bought Russia in from the cold, effectively putting Putin on par with the US. By excluding Ukraine from so-called peace talks, Trump has endorsed Putin’s claim that Ukraine isn’t a real country but a province of mother Russia. 

 

‘Trump has endorsed Putin’s claim that Ukraine isn’t a real country but a province of mother Russia’

 

 

The fact that no European country was represented in the talks is helping attain another of the strategic goals of Putin – fragmenting of the western alliance. All that activity of Russia’s meddling in countries elections, supporting Brexit, cheering on Europe’s far right wasn’t necessary all he needed was dumb, compliant fool in the White House. 

There is, however, the question of whether the tail is wagging the dog? That is, are the tech barons setting the agenda, with their apparent determination to quash any kind of regulatory or competitive threats to monetising their products. Europe is seen as the primary source of that regulatory threat – hence their efforts to support the AfD with the aim of neutering Germany.  

Perhaps the tech threat is where we might bow down to the US, especially now that ministers have delayed plans to regulate AI, as the long awaited which been expected before Christmas, is now not expected to the summer. 

The bill was intended to be the government’s answer to concerns that AI models could become so advanced that they pose a risk to humanity, and were different from separate proposals to clarify how AI companies can use copyrighted material. 

Trump’s election has led to a rethink, however. A senior Labour source said the bill was “properly in the background” and that there were still “no hard proposals in terms of what the legislation looks like”. “They said let’s try and get it done before Christmas – now it’s summer.”   

 

“Everybody got a breakin’ point kid 

And they’ll rat on you” 

 

We finish by looking at last week’s Conservative Political Action Conference (“CPAC”) gathering in Washington.  Prior to Trump paying tribute to Nigel Farage as a “great guy”, Farage used his address to  “hail” [heil!]Trump’s “progress” with Vladimir Putin, and salute him as “simply the bravest man that I know”.  

The Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch is struggling to resolve the contradiction between a dazzled liking of Trump’s ideology, and what it means in practice. She appeared to choke over her words when she said, “President Zelenskyy is not a dictator,” 

In her address to the conference, Badenoch spouted the usual rubbish insisting that an “intellectual elite” is in control of everything, along with warnings about “the poisoning of minds that is happening in higher education”, and “leftwing progressivism, whether it’s pronouns or DEI or climate activism”. When asked about Elon Musk and his so-called department of government efficiency, she said: “I don’t even think Doge is radical enough.”  

 

“simply the bravest man that I know”

 

In summary, she is a Reform/Farage tribute act, which leaves the party exposed in what is left of their heartlands after the LibDems success in last year’s election. There was the 19% swing against them in Woking, alongside Guildford, Surrey Heath, Bicester and Woodstock, Horsham, Cotswolds South, Carshalton and Wallington, Tunbridge Wells. 

All of this was partly due to the mess the Tories made in local government, but the real driver for these lost seats was Brexit and the parties swing to the right on immigration, green policies, and the culture wars. These are the constituencies of the centre-right voter, as the Tories mover closer to the far-right the more voters suspect they are closet Farage’s and Trump’s.  

This looks like a quick way to electoral extinction; battling Reform on one side and the LibDems on the other. The classic war on two fronts. 

I find myself strangely optimistic. 

 

 

“And it makes me wonder why
Daddy, you’re a fool” 

 

‘A strangely optimistic piece this week. Primarily, because I think Trump’s behaviour is starting to alienate the US. You can already clearly see Canada lined-up against him, and the silence from China is deafening.

Turning to Europe, I feel the wave of populism is peaking. The result in Germany looks to be a good indicator, the AfD did well, but not well enough. Support for parties like that, and including Reform will remain at 20-25%.

Rather than casting Europe in his light, Trump has had the opposite effect, with Ukraine and his cuddling-up to Putin, being the catalyst.

I suspect that Europe will not forget Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine anytime soon. The consequences of his actions will be to bring Europe closer together. As defence becomes more important to Europe, I think the UK will start reintegrating with other states.

You can see the backlash already; one headline this morning is Tesla sales in Europe have crashed 45%, whilst EV sales have risen 37%. China’s BDY is outselling Tesla in the UK. 84% of Germans found Musk’s interventions in the elections to be unacceptable.

Lyrically, somewhat of a treat. We start with a tribute to the late Rick Butler, drummer with The Jam, and a “Town Called Malice”.

We then honour the late Roberta Flack whose “Killing Me Softly”, is just wonderful. I did cheat and use the Fugees cover, perhaps one of the best covers ever.

We end with the Rolling Stones “Fool to Cry”.

There are signs of things to enjoy!

 

Philip’

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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