I’m So Bored With the USA: Nice ‘n’ Sleazy

 

“Nice ‘n’ sleazy does it Does it every time”

 

 

 

People in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones, and PMs struggling in polls shouldn’t publish league tables!

 

On the day that the Starmer government published “name and shame” tables of NHS hospitals, YouGov published their latest “name and shame” on the government:

In a pan-European survey conducted at the end of August, only 22% of the electorate had a favourable opinion of Starmer, whilst 69% viewed him unfavourably – a net rating of -47%. Only Emmanuel Macron is more unpopular domestically.

Year-on-year from the 2024 general election, Labour has dropped from polling at 37.5% to 23.3%, the worst for any government since data started in 1983.

An average of polls conducted by YouGov over August shows that 14% of those Labour voters in the last election now intend to vote Reform or Conservative.

Interestingly, a much higher number of disillusioned Labour voters intend to move to other progressive parties: 13% to the Lib Dems, 10% to the Greens and 3% for the nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales.

In summary, Starmer, in fighting Reform, has identified the wrong foe; 26% of his 2024 coalition are defecting to the left.

Why? Basically, amongst other things, they find Reform offensive, and the governments mealy-mothed acceptance of their racism has seen them look to other options.

These voters don’t like comments such as a recent tweet from the former Conservative and Ukip MP Douglas Carswell: “From Epping to the sea, let’s make England Abdul free.”

Or, people like James Catton, the donor manager of Reform UK, who advocates forcibly deporting 10 million people.

“From Epping to the sea, let’s make England Abdul free”

 

Or, the free speech heroine, Lucy Connolly, who is championed by the Telegraph and Reform. In case you forget, she was the woman from Northampton who received a year’s prison sentence for stirring up racial hatred against asylum seekers last year after tweeting: “Mass deportation now, set fire to all the fucking hotels full of the bastards for all I care … If that makes me racist so be it.”

Starmer’s own pean to racism in his ill-fated “island of strangers” speech alienated these voters. After reviewing a survey of 30,000 people, Rob Ford, a professor of political science at Manchester University, found Starmer had “increased the salience of immigration and decreased the Labour vote without gaining any voters back from Reform”.

In “What Might Come Next?” , I wrote that a Reform government would look like “a racist version of Thatcherism; neoliberal, free-market economics….”

A recent survey by British Social Attitudes survey echo’s my thoughts:

 

• 81% of Reform voters think migrants have undermined the country’s culture and economy rather than enriched it, compared to C.31% of all voters.
• Only 33% of Reform voters believe the climate crisis is caused by human activity, compared with 54% of the public in general.
• Only 25% want taxes raised to pay for health, education and social benefits, against 46% of the general public.

 

Labour seem to have forgotten they were elected to represent the people, and seem focused on simply being re-elected. Instead of trying to out-do Reform, they should be emphasising the need for migration, and the fact that these are the people who staff the NHS, build houses, etc..

This tacit acceptance of the immigration issue, has allowed Farage to ramp-up his deportation plans.

A year ago, he rejected ideas for mass deportations as “a political impossibility”, today he proposes deporting 600,000 people in the first term of a Reform government.

 

‘he proposes deporting 600,000 people in the first term of a Reform government’

 

His comments about excluding woman and children from this appear disingenuous. He understands that this is a step-by-step process, realising that today there isn’t a political consensus supporting the mass deportation of families, much less established citizens, however, he left himself wiggle room, saying: “At this stage it’s not part of our plan for the next five years.”

Rather than listening to Farage, Starmer would be better served taking note of Spanish PM, Pedro Sánchez, who, last October, said: “Throughout history, migration has been one of the great drivers of the development of nations, while hatred and xenophobia have been – and continue to be – the greatest destroyer of nations. The key is in managing it well.”

As I wrote in “The Emperors’ New Clothes”, in 2024 “Spain recorded the highest growth of any major country, at 3.2%….which from this year plans to offer residency and work permits to up to 900,000 undocumented migrants. In 2024, over 400,000 vacancies were filled by migrants and dual nationals, as overall unemployment figures fell to their lowest level since the GFC.”

Labour tells us they were elected to rebuild Britain, instead they appear to be demolishing it!

As former minister Louise Haigh said on Monday, Labour can’t renew Britain while trapped in the old framework, they need to break free of their self-imposed fiscal ceilings . Voters no longer listen to the blame being passed to the Tories or the Office for Budget Responsibility.

A large contributor to these issues is Chancellor Reeves who is out of her depth. Her public performances are been wooden, her grasp of detail questionable, her rhetoric flat at precisely the moment the government’s economic message needs clarity and authority.

We can add to that, misguided. This week, when addressing the British Private Equity & Venture Capital Association, she told private equity bosses of her plans to shut down more regulators across the UK as she attempts to drive growth: “I want to take out more regulators; there’s still too many.”

The fact that she survived this week’s reshuffle tells you everything. Despite her poor performance, Starmer’s own credibility is tied to hers.

 

‘Despite her poor performance, Starmer’s own credibility is tied to hers’

 

 

Which brings me neatly onto Labour’s deputy-leaders elections. The runners and riders appear to show the party is split; Bridget Phillipson represents the loyalist/pro-government, while Lucy Powell is the soft-left candidate.

There are suggestion that No.10 would be uncomfortable with this scenario, with one MP, citing Powell’s ties to the mayor of Greater Manchester, who is seen as a potential successor to Starmer, said: “It’s a proxy war between Keir and Andy Burnham.”

Powell appears to have the support of a significant number of the “red wall” group of MPs, and the Tribune group. One supporter said: “She is definitely becoming the magnet for those of us who want a change.”

And, what about the Tories? Remember them?

This week has seen the return to the front pages of former PM, Boris Johnson, who is under mounting pressure to explain how his private office complies with rules over taxpayer subsidies after revelations appears to show all three of his staff helping Johnson’s business and profit-making ventures.

The office is partly funded by the public duty costs allowance (PDCA), which rules say should only be used to support the public work of former prime ministers. Johnson said he had followed the rules.

As a former PM, Johnson is entitled to a “public duty costs allowance” (“PDCA”), a subsidy intended to support their public duties, which is not meant to be used for private or commercial activities.

A senior Cabinet Office source confirmed that Johnson had claimed funds under the scheme to pay for staff salaries in his private office. Official data shows he has claimed £182,000 in PDCA payments since leaving government.

Included in the leaked document are details of a secret meeting with Peter Thiel, the billionaire co-founder of the US data firm Palantir. A year after the meeting the firm was given a role at the heart of the UK’s pandemic response. In 2023, the company was awarded the biggest ever NHS IT contract, worth £330m to run a federated data platform analysing hospital data and patient information.

There is also the suggestion, that Johnson approached senior Saudi officials he had met when he was PM to pitch the services of Better Earth, a little-known UK-based consultancy firm established by a Canadian mining financier, who co-chairs the company with him.

Another meeting was with the left-wing president of Venezuela, when Johnson was accompanied b Maarten Petermann, manager of the hedge fund Merlyn Advisors

When later questioned about the meeting, Johnson told UK government officials: “It is not true to say that I was paid for any meetings in Venezuela”, and that he had no contractual relationship with the fund.

However, weeks after attending the meeting, the Guardian revealed that Johnson received £240,000 from Petermann.

Lastly, there is a dinner on Friday 6 November 2020 with David Brownlow, the Tory peer who provided £58,000 to fund some of the costs of his refurbishment of his Downing Street apartment.

The day before, the 5th, new lockdown restrictions banning people from any social meetings indoors were introduced, and Johnson said: “Unless we act, we could see deaths in this country running at several thousand a day.”

This is just Johnson being Johnson, with one set of rules for him and one for everyone else.

 

‘This is just Johnson being Johnson, with one set of rules for him and one for everyone else’

 

Before concluding, a quick look at la-la land.

Things seems to be unravelling further for Trump.

His attempt to claim presidential immunity to avoid paying $83.3m in damages to the writer E Jean Carroll have failed, after a federal appeals court upheld a jury’s 2024 award against the president for defamation.

House Democrats have released an image of a sexually suggestive letter and drawing, appearing to be signed by him, that he sent to the disgraced financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The very same note he denied writing after reports of its existence were published earlier this year in the Wall Street Journal.

In response, Trump’s Deputy chief of staff for communications, Taylor Budowich, suggested in an X post: “Time for news corp to open that check book, it’s not his signature. DEFAMATION!”

His attempts at playing the global peacemaker are failing miserably. Both Israel and Russia continue to expand their hostile activities, testing how far they can go

Israel continues to be ever more belligerent, and are now bombing Qatar. Trump denied any knowledge of this attack, which seems strange given the proximity to a large US regional air base.

Russia, also pushing the envelope, had a number of drones shot down over Polish airspace.

Dr Marion Messmer, senior research fellow at Chatham House, said: “…For now, Nato does not treat this airspace violation as a deliberate attack – but taken together with other recent grey zone activities, it suggests that Russia is trying to test where Nato’s red lines are.”

His tariffs will impact the launches it Apple’s latest iPhone, the question is where will it be made? Typically, it would be China, perhaps India, however tariffs could make them unaffordable for cash strapped consumers.

This is just one example of the disruption to global supply and distribution chains due to Trump’s tariffs.

In conclusion, and putting America to one-side, where does this leave us?

The UK government, befuddled and lost. It has no idea what it is, let alone what it plans to do.

 

‘The UK government, befuddled and lost. It has no idea what it is, let alone what it plans to do’

 

Sharon Graham, the Unite general secretary, summed this up, saying: “I do not understand how a Labour government has been attacking some of poorest in our society … pensioners, the disabled … whilst leaving the super-rich totally untouched.”

Starmer, whilst good at sacking those who didn’t agree with him, is a weak, poorly advised PM.

This has given rise to theatrical posing, including tough actions against immigrants, alongside pensioners and the disabled.

He has done little about the genocidal conduct of Israel, seemingly happier to arrest pensioners who support Palestine.

He is marching to Reform’s playbook; anti-immigration and Islamophobia.

This folly is a double-whammy. Voters who support Reform won’t vote for him, he is too drippy. More progressive voters are offended by his mealy-mouthed Reform tribute act and are looking elsewhere.

Reform are a throwback to the nativist fantasies of yesterday, and the manifesto’s of the National Front and the British National Party. Today, their fantasies are being realised by Reform.

If Starmer is our last line of defence against Reform we are lost…..

 

“And it’s all over

The war is over”

 

 

This week the government continues to unravel.

They are majoring on immigration, which is increasing. Also, the hapless chancellor is still banging-on about deregulating the City as a way of delivering growth. Whenever I hear this, I can’t help thinking that she is touting for her next job.

The “Johnson papers”, whilst interesting, just reveal him being himself, doing what he pleases irrespective of the rules.

I deliberately didn’t cover the Mandelson story as the whole Epstein saga is totally unseemly. Although, I suspect more high-profile heads might roll.

Mandelson, like Johnson, was just being himself. He has always been too impressed by rich people, likely in his desire to be one, too.

This is his third sacking;  the first, when he was trade and industry secretary, concerned an undeclared £373,000 loan he had taken from wealthy colleague Geoffrey Robinson to buy a London house.

In 2001, he was again sacked following revelations that he had contacted the Home Office in 1998 on behalf of billionaire Indian-born businessman Srichand Hinduja, who was seeking British citizenship.

Should he have been appointed? Probably not, but then his obsequious nature plays well with people like Trump.

This week’s real story is the shooting of Charlie Kirk in America.

In 2012 he co-founded Turning Point USA to drive conservative, anti-woke viewpoints among young people, turning himself into the go-to spokesman on TV networks and at conferences for young right-wingers. Kirk, dubbed a “youth whisperer” of the right , was largely responsible for the rise of Donald Trump among young voters.

Trump has blamed “the radical left” for the shooting and promised a crackdown, saying its “rhetoric is directly responsible for the terrorism that we’re seeing in our country today and it must stop right now”. He also provided a list of incidents of what he termed “radical left political violence” which omitted violence against Democrats.

This might prove to be a watershed moment in US history. The question is, will Trump use this as an excuse to crackdown on his opponents? Will we see the National Guard bought-in, perhaps the army? Will he enact emergency powers?

Add this to the increased belligerence of Israel and Russia, which is further destabilising the middle-east and Europe, the axis of evil that China is marshalling, and the disruption to global trade caused by Trump, and the outlook is decidedly unpleasant.

Lyrically, we start with “Nice ‘n’ Sleazy” by the Stranglers, and end with the “Unknown Soldier” by the Doors.

Someone, somewhere is probably enjoying themselves!

Philip.  

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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