inequality
“t’s hard to take courage
In a world full of people” 

 

 

The moral of the story by Hans Christian Anderson is an idiom that praises something that is false or without value, or, a situation where people are afraid to criticize something because it is widely accepted as true

 

 

 

I say this, because this is my view of the behaviour of the US President and Vice President. We are seeing weak people, bullying and masquerading in a pretence of strength. 

They are simply appeasing Russia. There is no pretence of right and wrong, just appeasement, and an asset grab. There is no real peace deal, it’s just another example of Czechoslovakia in 1938 and Poland in 1939. As with the Czech leader, Edvard Beneš, in 1938, President Zelenskyy was summoned to be shouted out and intimidated. Trump’s lasting peace will see Ukraine sign-away much of its mineral rights to the US, and, with Russia intent on keeping the Ukrainian territory they have captured, is not dissimilar to how Hitler and Stalin divided up  Poland in 1939. 

US Secretary of state Rubio has spoken previously of his vision of a 21st-century world dominated by the US, Russia and China, and divided into 19th-century geopolitical spheres of influence. To maintain this tripartite balance of power, the US needs strong relations with Moscow, which explains why Trump needs Ukraine to surrender in order for him and Putin to divide-up the country. 

 

We are seeing weak people, bullying and masquerading in a pretence of strength’

 

In all of this, Trump fundamentally misunderstands one thing; America is a fading power. This is a rerun of the last days of Rome being played out. This time the victor will be China, with, possibly, a resurgent Europe taking its place at the top table.  

Trump accused Zelenskyy of playing his hand badly, but, if anyone did that, it was Trump himself.  

After WW2, the US was the primary architect and guarantor of a network of global institutions, including Nato, the World Trade Organization, and the International Monetary Fund. They provided a “security umbrella whose benefits far outweighed its expense”, which, in-turn, produced political stability and provided US and European companies with unrivalled access to markets and resources.  

Those on the inside of this network, such as the US and its allies, grew accustomed to the status quo it created, perhaps making them too comfortable and complacent. Those on the outside, such as Russia and China, cultivated networks of propagandists, corrupt officials and saboteurs, with a common goal of identifying the west’s weak points, creating political instability and undermining western unity. 

Within this, the outsiders have been aided by events such as Brexit, and the rise of populist nationalists, both of which have undermined European unity. The final nail in the coffin of the post-WW2 world is the ascent of Trump, the world’s premier populist nationalist. 

In cutting Ukraine adrift Trump is cutting Europe adrift. His gamble is that, by supporting populist nationalism in European countries, he can divide and rule. If he fails in this and Europe unifies around a beleaguered Ukraine, the US will be isolated and facing two powers; China and Europe. 

 

‘In cutting Ukraine adrift Trump is cutting Europe adrift’

 

Trump will probably threaten to stop sending decommission-ready military equipment to Ukraine and lift sanctions against Russia. He might even gamble on sidelining trade with Europe for the higher risk, smaller Russian market, which his Maga-aligned elites may embrace. 

Trump is betraying Ukraine and the Ukrainian people, who are fighting for their freedom, sovereignty and democratic self-determination. 

Europe has two choices; sit-back and accept this new reality, in the hope that Russia’s territorial ambitions stop at Ukraine. Or, it can adapt to a world without US support, where it has to take a more assertive role in its own defence and strategic decision-making.  

Europe doesn’t need to fight the US, it doesn’t need to fall-out with it specifically, it just needs to be independent of them. 

 

It would be foolish to suggest anything else, other than that the immediate future for Ukraine is difficult.  

Any “peace” on Trump’s Russia-dictated terms benefits only Russia, who have a history of breaking ceasefires. Once sanctions are eased, Russia can rearm and prepare for another offensive against a weakened Ukraine.  

Even without US support, Ukraine is in a stronger position militarily and diplomatically than it was in early-2022. Trump’s behaviour is only serving to highlight the gap between the US and Europe, whose leaders are uniting in their support for Ukraine 

PM Starmer has expressed his support and welcomed Zelenskyy to London, including a meeting with the King. 

Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, wrote: “Ukraine is Europe! We stand by Ukraine. We will step up our support to Ukraine so that they can continue to fight back the aggressor. 

“Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.” 

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the EU Commission, wrote: “Your dignity honours the bravery of the Ukrainian people. Be strong, be brave, be fearless. You are never alone. We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace.” 

 

‘Be strong, be brave, be fearless. You are never alone. We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace’

 

 

President Macron of France, told reporters: “Russia is the aggressor, and Ukraine is the aggressed people … These are simple things, but they’re good to remember at times like these.” 

Italy’s right-wing PM, Giorgia Meloni, who might be expected to support Trump, called for an “A summit without delay is needed between the United States, European states and their allies to talk frankly about how we intend to tackle today’s major challenges, starting with Ukraine, which together we have defended in recent years.” 

Jonas Gahr Støre, Norway’s prime minister, described the episode as “serious and disheartening. That Trump accuses Zelenskyy of gambling with world war three is deeply unreasonable and a statement I distance myself from.” 

The Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, wrote: “Ukraine, Spain stands with you.” 

Poland’s PM, Donald Tusk, wrote: “You are not alone.” 

Further afield, Canada’s PM, Justin Trudeau, said Ukraine’s fight against Russia is a defence of democracy: “Russia illegally and unjustifiably invaded Ukraine. For three years now, Ukrainians have fought with courage and resilience. Their fight for democracy, freedom, and sovereignty is a fight that matters to us all. Canada will continue to stand with Ukraine.”  

If, as it appears, the US find themselves isolated, almost as a rogue nation, Trump’s foreign policy will be in tatters. This will be very detrimental to the real power behind the throne of King Donald, his tech barons.   

These barons are becoming more obvious as they try to shape things in their own-light. 

 

‘This will be very detrimental to the real power behind the throne of King Donald, his tech barons’

 

Jeff Bezos, The billionaire owner of the Washington Post, has decreed that only opinions that support “personal liberties” and “free markets” will be welcome in the opinion pages of the paper. 

Viewpoints opposing those pillars will be left to be published by others,” he added. 

As a result, the paper’s top opinion editor, David Shipley, resigned immediately. 

Bezos clearly sees the Post as a political tool that will benefit his own commercial interests, rather than as an independent news organization.  

This is a just an example of the tech barons “do as I want” view of the world; small state, minimal regulation, and minimal taxes. Not just at home, but overseas, too. 

They require a Europe under Trump’s thumb, so that any monopoly threats, and regulation that restricts content is abandoned. A free-for-all is their ideal. 

The same applies to taxation; Trump is already making threats against new UN proposed taxation changes which could permit states to tax economic activity where it actually occurs, rather than allowing multinationals to shift profits to tax havens. The Tax Justice Network (TJN) said last year that nations lose $492bn (£390bn) annually due to corporate tax abuse.  

If enacted, the convention would replace the outdated arm’s-length principle with unitary taxation, ensuring fair profit allocation. It would mean an end to Amazon, Google and Apple putting billions through lower-tax jurisdictions while extracting wealth from higher-tax ones. 

When negotiations for the UN framework convention on international tax cooperation began last month, all participants committed to the convention’s principles except Mr Trump’s delegate, who walked out in defiance, calling on others to follow. The expected exodus never came. Washington was left isolated. Mr Trump’s “America first” became “America alone”. 

The threat of tariffs against Canada and the EU are warning shots, aimed at countries daring to raise tax rates on multinationals, especially US ones. This goes beyond taxation, the US is effectively challenging a nations sovereignty by trying to strong-arm them into preserving a system that shields corporate profits from fair taxation.  

Now, for the first time, the world is pushing back. This goes beyond what is fair, it is becoming a necessity. As Europe seeks to increase defence spending budgets come under increasing pressure. All this lost revenue could be real win for beleaguered finance ministers.  

 

‘Now, for the first time, the world is pushing back. This goes beyond what is fair, it is becoming a necessity’

 

 

Trump economic policies appear to be equally disastrous depending on your economic situation.  

The US is already one of the most unequal of all the developed nations as there is little to suggest this will change. That tariffs will result in trade wars seems almost inevitable if he continues to antagonise everyone. 

The Kiel Institute said that the promise of imposing levies “very soon” was a profound moment in the postwar relationship between Washington and Brussels and could prove to be an economic shock to both parties. 

It found that EU exports to the US would drop by between 15% and 17%, leading to “a significant” 0.4% contraction in the size of the EU economy, while American GDP would shrink by 0.17%. 

Worse for the US would come from tit-for-tat tariffs by the EU, which would double the economic damage and push inflation up by 1.5 percentage points, the thinktank said.   

As I wrote in “Darklands”, American voters deserted the Democrats because the majority didn’t feel better off despite the economy appearing to be booming. 

For the few, it was, indeed, boom time. But, for the majority inflation has hit them hard. As I wrote then, the level of stockmarket, and GDP growth mean little to Main St. For them the important measure are unemployment and inflation; rising prices impact most on those who have the least.  

Despite all this uncertainty I remain optimistic. Good will always triumph over evil. 

 

‘the important measure are unemployment and inflation; rising prices impact most on those who have the least’

 

Europe is lining up behind Ukraine, and is learning the need to stand-up for itself, and against bullies.  

The US has a decision to make; they either support good, that is Europe, which includes Ukraine, or they support evil, Russia. Either way, Europe, which includes the UK, will prevail. 

I want to continue this high note and end with a look at Spain. In, “Trump, Role Model or Last Year’s Model?”, I talked about the recent success of Spain’s economy which is showing how progressive politics rather than resorting to hard-right politics can benefit everyone . 

Spain has a centre-left government.  

Last year, Spain recorded the highest growth of any major country, at 3.2%. This was achieved under a Socialist-led coalition government that has welcomed high levels of immigration as a driver of economic prosperity, and which from this year plans to offer residency and work permits to up to 900,000 undocumented migrants. In 2024, over 400,000 vacancies were filled by migrants and dual nationals, as overall unemployment figures fell to their lowest level since the GFC. 

 

‘Despite all this uncertainty I remain optimistic. Good will always triumph over evil’

 

Boosted by EU post-pandemic recovery funds, government expenditure is at an all-time high. Most of the money has gone on upgrading vital infrastructure and green investment, including urban low-emission zones and subsidies for small businesses. 

When the PM, Pedro Sánchez, unveiled his government’s plans to make it easier for migrants to settle last October, he said: “Throughout history, migration has been one of the great drivers of the development of nations, while hatred and xenophobia have been – and continue to be – the greatest destroyer of nations. The key is in managing it well.” 

Is anyone in Washington listening? 

 

 

And I’m, I’m so all alone

 

‘Wow! The last few days have been incredibly revealing. This was strangely a difficult piece to write. There was the obvious shock and awe at the way they just ganged-up on President Zelenskyy, but I wanted to explore what it might mean

Trump et al have been outed as bullies and appeasers. Right and wrong aren’t relevant to them. Its just what suits them best. A grab for minerals, a grab for land. The US is becoming a rogue state, little different to Russia.

As dictators throughout history have found, ultimately you pick a fight you can’t win. Usually, you end-up isolated, or supported by the few.

The US could be headed the same way. Europe, China, Canada, all against them.

MAGA won’t be quite so “USA, USA”, when they start losing. Add to that the chaos and misery Trump’s economic policies are likely to cause and the gloss will quickly start to peel off.

The real power, the tech barons, are just self-serving, greedy, autocrats, convinced that they know best, and want everything their way.

PM Starmer seems to be playing his hand well, and seeing that reintegrating with Europe, even if it is only on defence, is the right option.

There are the usual idiots; our ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, needs to be put in his place. As James Cleverly, a former Conservative foreign secretary, said: “The UK ambassador to Washington isn’t meant to communicate his own opinion, he is meant to communicate the UK government opinion. Lammy and Starmer need to grip this.”  

Then there is Reform and their leader, Nigel Farage. For him this could be a pivotal moment, the majority of UK voters support Ukraine and Zelenskyy, I can see that hardening further after last week’s display. Farage has a decision to make, Trump or Ukraine. The latter might mean a more Eurocentric UK.

Today Farage said: “I think President Zelenskyy was very unwise to tell the Americans what would happen to them if they didn’t back him. I think it was unwise. Sure, Vance and Trump bit back. But I think in diplomatsmart move now!

Strangely, I am enjoying thisic terms Zelenskyy played it very badly.”

Supporting Trump isn’t the 

Lyrically, we start with “True Colors” by Cyndi Lauper, and Trump is certainly showing his now. We finish with a tribute to David Johansen,  “Lonely Planet Boy” by New York Dolls. Enjoy! Philip.

 

@coldwarsteve

 

Philip Gilbert 2Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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