I’m So Bored With the USA: The End of the Trilogy “The past and the present and the future The faith and hope and charity”

 

This is the concluding piece of an unintended trilogy, and follows on from “Is this the Most Inept Government?”, and “What Might Come Next?”

 

 

In the editorial to the latter, I wrote; Whilst these measures [executive orders] may start as temporary, giving them a veneer of legality, overtime they become the norm, and quoted Ernst Fraenkel, who wrote: …”a government in which the executive is released from all legal restraints and depends solely on the discretion of the persons wielding political power”.

 

The incumbent Labour government has been mugged by the duopoly of the Tories and a rabid right-wing media. Labour fell for the three-card trick; believing that elections are won from the centre without understanding that the centre had moved right, falling for the old “Labour, tax and spend” jibe and promising no tax increases; and, by a Tory party who, knowing the election was lost, loaded up on future economic problems.

As I have continually said; the country is run for the minority at the expense of the majority. A minority that believes in the Tories right to govern, something I covered in “We suffer for the Tory’s insatiable lust for power at any price.”

 

‘the country is run for the minority at the expense of the majority’

 

Even after 14-yrs of wrecking the country, they show unshakeable belief in themselves. The Tory chair, Kevin Hollinrake, said last week: “Only the Conservatives, under new leadership, will take a responsible approach to the public finances and ensure our economy grows whilst we live within our means.”

The Tories are an irrelevance in fantasy land, blaming Labour for all of their own failings, with media support.

Labour are far from blameless, they have done a difficult job badly, and that shows no sign of improving. Their leadership is, at best, uninspiring; the latest promise of “delivery, delivery, delivery” is stupid. The only thing worse is that someone gets paid to originate this rubbish

But, it isn’t just the last 14-yrs, this crisis has been the elephant in the room for much longer. Forty-five years of tax cuts and shrinking the economy, has left the country in debt, morally and economically.

Like many western economies we have an ageing population which puts intolerable strains on budgets and services. Coupled with this, is an upturn in nationalism and anti-immigration, cutting off valuable sources of labour and tax revenues.

 

‘Forty-five years of tax cuts and shrinking the economy, has left the country in debt, morally and economically’

 

As a result politics is in the west is in turmoil, dominated by populist well versed in the politics of grievance, promising everything but workable solutions. Governments are under increasing pressure due to the failures of borrow and spend policies. This had led to burgeoning government debt being seized upon by populists and their media, undermining and destabilise sovereign debt markets.

Despite this, none are going bust.

In the UK, the yield on Gilts has moved roughly in-line with other bond markets. Yields have risen because the world has become more risky, and the risk of inflation has risen. Even if central banks ease interest rates to offset the impact of tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical dislocation, there is still the ongoing fear of inflation.

Because of these fears, investors prefer shorter maturity dates. The explains why 30-yrs gilt yields are hitting record levels. It isn’t the market seeing the UK in crisis, it is bondholders natural fear of inflation.

 

The following, from the UK’s Debt Management Office, highlights the global demand for Gilts:

 

1. Since Labour took office, the Gilts market has funded >£300bn for the UK at government at real interest rates (yield minus inflation) better than most other western nations.

2. Gilts auction since July 2024 have been, on average, of 3.18x covered.

3. The only exception to point 2, has been 5 long gilt Bonds, (10-yrs+ to maturity), which, on average were around 2.89x covered.

 

The reality is these levels of demand show that the government could issue more debt if required.

Everything is being overwhelmed by the incoherent noise of populists and their media. Their half-baked proposal won’t solve any of the multiple real issues at the centre of western economies; growth, infrastructure, education, defence, welfare. They will make them worse.

 

‘Everything is being overwhelmed by the incoherent noise of populists and their media’

 

Nigel Farage, our resident populist, can lay claim to one political achievement; Brexit. Achievement is a term is use loosely; Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster and has been the actual “boot on the neck” of business and the broader economy.

Brexit was only ever a sop to small-minded British exceptionalism, nationalism devoid of reality. “Johnny Foreigner” was to blame for everything. When Brexit didn’t deliver sunlight uplands it is the turn of immigrants to be blamed for our shortcomings.

Reforms anti-migrant policy includes plans to pay despotic regimes like the Taliban’s to take back asylum seekers from Britain.

Richard Tice, their deputy leader, defended this, saying: “When you’re in business, sometimes you do business with people that you may not like…. We’re not responsible for all of the bad things that happen by bad leaders elsewhere in the world.”

 

‘Within this surge of nationalism, there is the need to single out the weak in society. Perhaps we are searching for the master race?’

 

Within this surge of nationalism, there is the need to single out the weak in society. Perhaps we are searching for the master race?

Tice also claimed that some parents of Special educational needs and disabilities (“Send”) children are “abusing” the system that allows their children to be taken by taxi to special needs schools. Tice implied some of the parents were lazy: “There are some parents, they want to save themselves the opportunity to get up in the morning, set the alarm and crack on and drive their children to school. So they’re using it, abusing the free taxi service.”

While some parents get free transport provided by councils for their Send children, many have to contribute, or pay the full costs themselves.

Councils in England spent more than £2bn a year on transport for special needs pupils, who often have to be educated in special schools quite a long way from where they live and who cannot travel alone on public transport.

Staying with local government, Reform proposes to change the way their pension funds are invested, and the charges levied on this, suggesting savings of 6% and 8% of total council tax spending, allowing council tax to be lowered, or social care improved.

Sounds suspiciously like Brexiters spurious promise of ‘£350m a week for the NHS’.

Overall, Reform has had a busy summer, aside from encouraging anti-immigration riots, they have staged five press conferences.

Throughout this Farage, the party leader, has done his best to play the role of PM. The actual PM, has helped greatly in this deception, either remaining silent or parroting similar policies to Farage.

For example, when Farage announced plans to detain and deport undocumented migrants last week, the Labour party chair, Ellie Reeves, lamented that he “can’t say where his detention centres will be”, reducing the issue of immigration down to one of where do we put them.

To his credit, Farage is a good public speaker, it’s his subject matter that is objectionable. He also has a wonderful ability to both take questions from all sides and dismiss those he cannot answer. His answers tend to descend into diatribe territory, containing a multitude of half-truths and pet theories, each ready for the headlines writers.

 

‘Farage is a good public speaker, it’s his subject matter that is objectionable’

 

His mastery of the politics of the social media age, where practicalities and reality are unimportant and the message is everything, enables him to be brazen where other politicians would appear shifty. Reform benefit from the media coverage afforded to a major player, and the lack of scrutiny of a nonentity.

Farage has benefited from Labour taking the summer off, which has been portrayed in the media as a mix of defeatism and despair, pas they paint pictures of a lost society; lawless, broken and invaded by immigrants.

This is reflected in the polls, with YouGov showing Labour’s approval rating at its lowest level in six years, with only 20% of the public saying they would vote for the party at the next election.

In “What Might Come Next?, I wrote that “The great irony is that the governments management of the economy is restricted by Farage’s failed vision, namely Brexit. It fascinates me that he [Farage] remains largely unchallenged on the subject.”

In May, PM Starmer announced his outline agreement with the EU. Farage the great Brexiter avoided commenting, and, instead, the party issued a statement accusing the government of “cosying up to the EU and leaving us entangled in reams of retained EU law.”

Brexit should be Farage’s Achilles heel, it’s one of his few actual achievements, and it has been a disaster. and the electorate know it; a survey by More in Common showed 54% of voters now believe that closer relations with the EU would be good for Britain, while only 18% of voters disagree.

Voters are even willing to undermine British sovereignty to boost the economy, with 44% saying the government should prioritise the economy, compared with 38% who say it should focus on sovereignty.

This is where he is vulnerable; this is where his flippant lack of detail and dismissiveness of “how” questions catches him out. He was the catalyst for Brexit, and, amid all manner of promises, it has failed.

This is why Farage has moved onto immigration. And, as with Brexit, only Reform can deal with the issue.

As we have seen with Trump’s immigration measure, nothing is ever enough. The policy is continually escalating as the migrant net keeps expanding. The prosecution of the policy is now so severe “that immigrants, both documented and undocumented, are afraid to leave their houses to buy groceries or go to work, as the national guard patrols the streets.”

The US’s southern border is now so militarised that armoured vehicles previously stationed in Iraq are positioned there.

Farage will be no different; once he secures the border and stopped the arrival of immigrants on small boats, he will look inwards. He plans to deport 600,000 people over the course of a five-year parliament. As with Trump, this is an illusory number plucked from thin air, which forms the basis for their plan.

To deliver this, larger enforcement agencies are required, laws need to be rewritten or unpicked, leading to the entire concept of legal residence being reinterpreted.

Another area that populists champion is freedom of speech. What is key in this statement is the word “freedom”. Their interpretation is self-serving; you can say whatever you wish provided it’s in-line with what they want, think or believe.

 

‘Reform acts like, and is probably, the government-in-waiting’

 

An example of their interpretation of freedom of speech, is the decision of the Reform led Nottinghamshire county council leaders decision to ban his councillors from engaging with the Nottingham Post’s online edition and a team of BBC-funded local democracy journalists that it manages.

Natalie Fahy, the editor of the Nottingham Post and Nottinghamshire Live, said: “It’s a massive attack on local democracy….This is a worrying sign of potentially things to come if Reform wins the next election. What you’re seeing here in Nottinghamshire is probably a microcosm of how it will be across the whole of the UK if Nigel Farage becomes prime minister. You are just going to see this kind of shutting down of questioning.”

Reform depict themselves as anti-censorship, and intend to repeal the online safety laws. Clearly they are happy to deregulate the internet, and seem equally happy to censor any of the normal forms of democratic scrutiny.

Despite of all this Reform acts like, and is probably, the government-in-waiting. They are adept at saying what the electorate wants to hear, and many feel “they can’t be any worse than the last lot”.

This lot are totally different; they can, and will be much worse!

Authoritarianism coming to a town near you, and sooner than you might think…..

 

 

 

“Headlines of death and sorrow – they tell of tomorrow

Madmen on the rampage”

 

 

‘The inevitable summary of the trilogy is that Reform is the government-in-waiting.

They act the part, and have been allowed to do so, by a government that seems in perpetual defence mode. In fairness to Labour they really did inherit a poison chalice, but it’s hard to envisage a difficult situation being dealt with in a worse manner.

The chancellor has kicked the can down the road, postponing the autumn statement until November, in the forlorn hope that something might turn-up. Some hope!

The deputy PM has resigned for being too clever with her house purchase stamp duty. Her fall from grace is a victory for the spiteful Daily Mail. Rayner’s biggest failing in their eyes was being a teenage unmarried mother, and getting ideas above her station. Clear lesson here; the great unwashed should know their place; holiday homes, as if……

Nadine Dorries has defected from the Tories to Reform; difficult to know who the beneficiary is on this one. Dorries, in her parting shot, said “the Tory party was finished”. It really is an odd sensation finding myself agreeing with her!

For me the big story was the death of Giorgio Armani, who, along with David Bowie was a major influence on myself and whatever I have become. Not everyone wore his clothes but the vast majority wore things he influenced.

For me he was the greatest, he made clothes I just wanted to wear.

Thanks and RIP Signor Armani.

As a result there is a greater than normal degree of self-indulgence in this week’s lyrics. We start with De La Soul and “Three is a Magic Number” as this is the third piece in the trilogy. We end with The Jam and “Down in the Tube Station at Midnight”. Their apocalyptic lyrics perfectly capture what life under a Reform government will be like.

In tribute to Signor Armani, we have “Paninaro” by Pet Shop Boy…..” Armani, Armani, ah-ah-Armani.”

Read and weep! Philip

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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