I’m So Bored With the USA: Trump, Role Model or Last Year’s Model? 

 

“Men come screaming, dressed in white coats
Shake you very gently by the throat” 

 

America has long seen itself as the “Land of the Free”, its even in the ”Star Spangled Banner”. However, as is the case in Trump’s era things aren’t what they used to be. 

 

Julianne Moore, the actress, has had one of her books, “Freckleface Strawberry”,  “banned by the Trump Administration” from schools serving the children of US military personnel and civilian defence employees. 

The Department of Defense has circulated a memo stating that it is examining library books “potentially related to gender ideology or discriminatory equity ideology topics”. After access to all library books was suspended for a week for a review, a “small number of items” were identified and have been kept for “further review”, it said. 

Moore’s, a story about a girl who dislikes her freckles but learns to live with them, is among the books caught up in the blanket review. However, it is not known whether the title was selected for further review or for withdrawal. 

The review of library books is part of an examination of all “instructional resources”, according to the Defense Department, to check that its schools are aligned with Trump’s recent executive orders Ending Radical Indoctrination in K-12 Schooling and Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism. 

I suspect this comes up the heading of culture wars, a subject that particularly vexes the Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch. 

Now you might have though that with US president Trump’s recent actions plunging the UK into a national security crisis, even she would have hesitated. But, no. Kemi just can’t help herself, nothing can keep her from a culture war, not even the threat of an actual war.  

 

‘Kemi just can’t help herself, nothing can keep her from a culture war, not even the threat of an actual war’

 

Speaking at the right-wing Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (ARC) conference in London, she ripped into corporate diversity policies, climate activism, Keir Starmer taking the knee four and a half years ago, and various other imagined threats to western civilisation that are not forcing Britain to consider deploying troops against them, before concluding triumphantly that when people ask her what difference a change of leader makes, her answer is, “Take a look at President Trump.” 

In fact, Kemi was so blinded by her own brilliance, that she said: “our country and all of western civilisation will be lost” if efforts to renew the Conservative party and drive forward right-wing ideas globally fail. It would seem to me that, given the abject state of the Conservatives, the battle is already lost! 

Another speaker was the US energy secretary, Chris Wright, who described the aim of reaching net zero by 2050 as a “sinister goal” and “lunacy”, claiming Britain’s politics in the area had impoverished the country. 

“I think the agenda might be different here than climate change. It’s certainly been a powerful tool used to grow government power, top-down control and shrink human freedom. This is sinister,” he said. 

“Whether it’s pronouns, or DEI, or climate activism, these issues aren’t about kindness – they are about control. We have limited time and every second spent debating what a woman is, is a second lost from dealing with challenges.” 

Kemi aside, it has been interesting in the last 48-hours to see how the electorate and politicians view Trump’s shenanigans. 

Reform UK’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, was shredded by TalkTV’s uber-Brexiter Julia Hartley-Brewer for attempting to defend Trump’s shameful betrayal of Ukraine. “Which part of Britain would you give away if we were invaded? I just thought Reform cared about national borders and sovereignty.” 

As you might expect, existing Reform voters are the most pro-Trump;  YouGov found that 54% were  happy to see him elected compared with 16% of voters overall. But, it is what’s left of the Conservative vote Farage needs to win over, and only 20% were happy to see Trump re-elected, and this was before recent events. 

The former Telegraph editor and Margaret Thatcher biographer Charles Moore, a frequent visitor to Kyiv, said that Trump’s withdrawal was a “disaster for security”, leaving Putin free to exert deadly dominance in Europe: “Even Stalin never won that much.” 

Left centrist parties should be looking to Spain for a wake-up call. They have shown that anti-immigration, and denying climate change isn’t the way forward. Spain was named the world’s best by the Economist in 2024. 

After seeing-off the right wing party Vox in July 2023, PM Pedro Sánchez, took the opposite stance to his counterparts in Italy, Germany or France.  He welcomed migrants, saying: “Spain needs to choose between being an open and prosperous country or a closed-off, poor country. It’s as simple as that.” 

 

‘choose between being an open and prosperous country or a closed-off, poor country. It’s as simple as that’

 

Aside from  humane reasons for encouraging immigration, Sanchez was forward thinking enough to understand that then with a birthrate ranked among the lowest in the EU, migrants were the only realistic means of growing the economy and sustaining the welfare state. 

Economic data shows the wisdom of his policy: Spain’s economy expanded by 3.2% last year., ahead of Germany ‘s 0.2% contraction, France’s 1.1% growth and Italy’s 0.5%, the Netherlands’ 0.8%, and our own  0.9% last year. 

But, as Javier Díaz-Giménez, a professor of economics at the IESE Business School, identified there were other factors, too. Spain’s abundance of wind and solar renewables helped to keep energy relatively cheap while EU Covid recovery funds bolstered the economy and the socialist-led government ran a deficit to fund initiatives such as raising pensions and public sector hiring. “If you get this combination, it’s hard to beat,” said Díaz-Giménez. 

It’s interesting to compare the way Spain has treated these issues similar, and to compare them to Reform / Farage, our own pound-shop Trump. Whereas Spain is forward thinking, recognising long-terms issues such as demographics and the use of renewables, they are using immediate solutions. Migrants arrive and start working on day-1, immediately offsetting the demographics of a low birth rate and ageing population. 

Farage, in comparison, offers pub politics; shagging and reindustrialisation.  

Addressing the ARC conference, Farage has called for the “reindustrialisation” of Britain and “180-degree shift” to reverse the declining birthrate, as he praised the “Judeo-Christian culture” that he claimed underpinned western civilisation. 

On the campaign trail last summer he claimed “Judeo-Christian values” were at the root of “everything” in Britain. 

Farage told the meeting that his party’s platform was “to reindustrialise Britain”. He said: “We’ve closed down our steel industry. We think closing down the steel industry is good because it means our national CO2 output is down. All that happens is the plant closes in Redcar, the plant closes in south Wales, it reopens in India under lower environmental standards, and then the steel is shipped back to us. So let’s produce all the stuff we need in this country.” 

Referring to oil and gas, Farage said: “Our view is that if we’re going to be using them, we may as well produce them ourselves in our own country and genuinely become energy independent”. 

 

‘Farage, in comparison, offers pub politics; shagging and reindustrialisation’

 

All of this sounds great, it could create employment in run-down areas, and begin levelling-up. 

The policy proposal vis a vis oil and gas create a debate around climate change, and whether fossil fuels are the way to become energy independent. The Spanish example shows that is possible to satisfy both requirements, but their policy is predicated on recognising climate change rather than denying it. 

Farage told the conference: “I’m an environmentalist in the old school sense”! 

The post-war history steel industry reads like a case study for the demise of British industry. 

At its peak in the early 1970s the industry employed C.320,000 people, and that excluded those employed in processing and supply-chains. By 2020 the workforce had declined to 10% of that number. 

The industry weas beset with problems, strike, the strength of Sterling make it uncompetitive, monetarism, and then it was privatised in 1988  

This did nothing to arrest the decline continued, made worse by an international glut of steel and  Chinese state subsidised firms flooding the international market, 

The final collapse of British Steel Limited (“BSLs”), exposed the ongoing fault lines in the government’s laissez-faire economic ideology and in Britain’s shareholder-centric model of corporate governance. 

A Brexit-centric Tory government justified its decision to not support the industry because a bailout or public ownership would be illegal under the EU state-aid laws!? 

This didn’t seem to be a problem when it came to bailing out banks, taking back the East Coast rail service and other lines back into public ownership, or giving out millions of pounds worth of contracts to ferry companies, even the ones without any ferries. 

Perhaps blaming the EU for domestic woes was part of the Conservative strategy to bolster its Brexit credentials, or perhaps it is just not concerned about deindustrialisation. 

Post privatisation, BSLs final owner was Greybull Capital, a private equity firm with a history of buying companies, such as Monarch Airlines, with a promise of resuscitating them, but then asset-stripping and closing them down.  

‘I mean, god, doesn’t Rachel Reeves make you want to reach for the cry tissues? It’s all so miserable, it’s all so declinist’

 

 

On the subject of falling birth rates, he said: “Of course, we need higher birthrates, but we’re not going to get higher birthrates in this country until we can get some sense of optimism. And we need a complete 180 shift in attitudes. 

“I mean, god, doesn’t Rachel Reeves make you want to reach for the cry tissues? It’s all so miserable, it’s all so declinist. Frankly, the Conservatives have been no better. We need a change of attitude in Britain.” 

This was a subject previously covered in “Doing It For England”. 

At the heart of this is the cost-of-living crisis, which has impacted people’s ability to afford children.  What meagre growth we have generated didn’t trickle-down, and GDP per head has fallen.  

As a result, we have increasing wealth inequality with gains hoarded at the top, growing regional disparities with some areas falling further behind despite national GDP rising, and rising immigration without enough job creation, which means more workers and insufficient well-paying positions. 

As I wrote in “Darklands”, “the traditional measure of economic success give a false picture.”   

In 2024, statistics show that government spending on pay rises, especially in the public sector, rather than business investment or net trade, generated growth. This fact provides the opportunity for Labour to implement a new economic vision centred on the state. Instead, the government is wedded to the idea that growth depends on government inaction in the face of unrestrained capitalism. 

Statistics often miss the point that public services are the engine of demand not just an economic input, a distortion that enforces the neoliberal myth that the economy is market-driven. Unfortunately, chancellor Reeves is a conformist, and plans to cut public sector net borrowing from March 2025 to meet fiscal rules; austerity to you and I. This is exactly what Messrs Cameron and Osborne implemented in 2010, which resulted in a decade of weak growth and stagnant wages.  

‘Forty years of the “markets know best” has weakened the state and rewarded rentier capitalism, reform is urgent’

 

 

Our fascination with free markets means profit is always to the fore, which contradicts John Maynard Keynes’ thought that was what’s good for society isn’t always good for profits.  

Forty years of the “markets know best” has weakened the state and rewarded rentier capitalism, reform is urgent. Labour must build a system that delivers it. 

We need to abandon the debt-driven, low-wage, financialised economic model, and implement public investment in infrastructure – especially in underserved regions – and in skills and industry is needed to stimulate demand and create high-quality jobs. Raising wages and reducing inequality will ensure broad-based prosperity, not just asset bubbles.  

I hate to say it but Farage’s reindustrialisation is on the right lines, but his private sector, neoliberal economics will serve only the few. The rest might have jobs, but they will be subservient to the god of profit!  

 

 

“She’s playing her game and you can hear them say
She is looking good, for beauty we will pay” 

 

‘Wow! What a week. What is there to say? Trump has lost the plot, although I am not sure he ever had it in the first place.

It feels like we are at an inflection point where the world could either turn back to 1938-39, Czechoslovakia and Poland today represented by Gaza and Ukraine, or create a brave new world.

Last week it was holidays in Gaza, this week it’s dividing up Ukraine for Russia’s benefit. And, not a thought for anyone else, just do as I say.

Personally, I think Trump will break America. The impact might not be fully seen for 10-yrs, but the end of US hegemony is in-sight.

America and Americans are really not liked, as such it hard to see Trump prevailing

Much will depend on how the rest of the world reacts. The US isn’t much liked in the Middle East and their petrodollars count for a lot. Canada and China have clearly made their feelings felt, and much now rests with Europe.

The only obvious allies there are Hungary and Russia. Poland and Spain defeated the right at the polls. Holland, despite the right triumphing in last year’s elections, could go either way. Italy under Meloni is hard to call, but I suspect she will come down in favour of Europe, they need the EU. France and Germany are key and neither seem to favour Trump.

An anti-Trump Europe will be some obstacle for him to overcome

Starmer has, to date, impressed me, being fully supportive of Ukraine and international law. It will be interesting to see if this is the beginning of the UK reintegrating with Europe.

At home there was the farcical right-wing conference attended by the usual bunch of has-beens and non-entities trying desperately to sound relevant, and  succeeding only in sounding desperate.

I will admit Farage’s idea of reindustrialising isn’t a bad one, but I struggle to see it happening.

So, in answer to my question; Trump is last year’s model   

Lyrically, we start with “(I Don’t Want to Go to) Chelsea” by Elvis Costello & The Attractions and finish with “The Model” by Kraftwerk.’

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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