I’m So Bored With the USA: What Might Come Next? 

It would appear that the UK is headed for a Reform government, either as a majority, or the senior partner in a coalition. The only possible impediment I can foresee is time. The next election isn’t due until 2029, Labour have a sweeping majority, and, whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see the PM fall, it’s hard to envisage the government following.

The opposition, the two historical main parties are lost, overtaken by a new world they can’t or won’t understand, and an inability to read between the lines and see the real problem.  

Farage has been very clever in weaponizing immigration, and there will always be a hardcore that are anti this. For the rest, it has become a reason for the discontent, a reason the country has no money, and why they feel so poor.

Only it isn’t.

The cost-of-living continues to increase ahead of wages, the problem therefore is obvious; in real terms people have less. Business tells us it can’t afford to pay more which isn’t quite true. Paying more won’t put them out of business, it will simply reduce their profits and therefore their dividends, sending investors into meltdown.

Therein lies the problem; the interests of the few are forcing the majority to suffer…yet again.

Farage isn’t the answer, he doesn’t have answers just people to blame. Originally, it was the EU, so we left, and guess what? Nothing changed, and much got worse.

He can only tell us what, there is no how, but then people are beyond caring about how.

The opposition and critics show their misunderstanding by focussing on his lack of detail, not realising that they are the only ones that care.

The opposition is too cowed to hit back; who has asked how ending asylum will ease the cost-of-living crisis? No one

Farage, once in-power, even if it is in a coalition government will be hard to dislodge.

He is a populist, just like Trump, and traditional democracies are less equipped to withstand the normalization of exceptional measures. In the US, the use of federal agents to quell domestic protest, police raids on the homes of political opponents, the use of emergency powers, are ongoing and therefore become the norm

Whilst these measures may start as temporary, giving them a veneer of legality, overtime they become the norm…”a government in which the executive is released from all legal restraints and depends solely on the discretion of the persons wielding political power”.

 

Source: Ernst Fraenkel,” The Dual State”

 

Lyrically, we open with Heaven 17 and “Fascist Groove Thing”, we end with something from the past, “Tear the Fascists Down”,  by Woody Guthrie.

Enjoy what you can, while you can!

Philip.

 

 

I’m So Bored With the USA: What Might Come Next? 

 

“Evil men with racist views
Spreadin’ all across the land” 

 

 

After deciding in, “Is This the Most Inept Government Ever?“ that the current government is stuck in the past, out-of-date, out-of-ideas, and out-of-time, I thought we should consider what, or who comes next

 

The clear leader in the polls is Reform on 28%, followed by Labour on 21%, Conservatives with 18%, LibDems 15% and  Greens on 10% 

 

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention 

 

Clearly not enough for Reform to form a majority government, but a coalition with the Tories would likely be sufficient. 

So, what would a Reform government look like? 

Probably it can best be summed-up as a racist version of Thatcherism; neoliberal, free-market economics, although there might be some state ownership of industry such as steel, and small government. By the latter, I mean shrinking the state, rather than small-minded, although there will be plenty of that! 

Oh, and it will be fracking great, lots of fracking, fracking for all, forever… 

Richard Tice, tells us that a Reform government would lift the ban on fracking immediately and then work with companies to look for gas at independently monitored sites. 

According to Tice: “We’ve got potentially hundreds of billions of energy treasure in the form of shale gas. It’s grossly financially negligent to a criminal degree to leave that value underground and not to extract it”. 

‘it will be fracking great, lots of fracking, fracking for all, forever…’

 

Better still, it won’t cost us a penny, as Reform would “create an attractive regulatory and tax framework’” rather than putting public money into fracking. 

The NHS that we know will be largely privatised, and health insurance will become a necessity. 

The overriding theme will be authoritarian, Farage seems to admire leaders of that ilk, E.G., Trump and Putin.  

Foreign policy will mirror this, so Gaza and Palestinians can expect to be hung out to dry. As for the Ukraine; aren’t they really Russians? 

Nationalism will be to the fore, flags everywhere, lots of badge kissing. Think Berlin 1933-1942, before we really go to bombing it. Of course, we will remember that, our finest hour,  with much fondness even though, deep down, those Nazi’s had some good ideas. Swap antisemitism for Islamophobia and you’ve got the picture. 

Immigration and immigrants, easy; there won’t be many. 

Immigration is really the key to understanding what a Reform government will look like. 

 

‘Swap antisemitism for Islamophobia and you’ve got the picture’

 

Their immigration policy, “Operation Restoring Justice”, is based on detaining and deporting “absolutely anyone” arriving by small boat and ensure they are “never, ever allowed to stay”. Asylum seekers are a threat to national security and to British women, and Channel crossings will be stopped “within days”, we will “save tens and possibly hundreds of billions of pounds”. 

Like all Reform proposals is was light on detail, and long on rhetoric and promises. Dismissing Reform for this is to entirely miss the point. The majority of the electorate don’t want or care about detail and substance, they just want migrants sent back. 

Rational conversation about a fair asylum processes is over, prominent politicians depict all claimants as criminals,  casting the entire system as a conspiracy to transfer public resources from native-born Britons to undeserving foreigners. These paranoid, xenophobic assumptions are not new, but their capture of mainstream politics is. 

Detail and substance aside, critics were quick to seize upon the legality of their proposals. 

Daisy Cooper, the LibDems deputy leader, condemned Reform’s mass deportation plans for “ripping up” human rights and involving potential payments to autocratic regimes, saying: “(Nigel) Farage’s plan crumbles under the most basic scrutiny. The idea that Reform UK is going to magic up some new places to detain people and deport them to, but don’t have a clue where those places would be, is taking the public for fools. 

“Of course Nigel Farage wants to follow his idol Vladimir Putin in ripping up the human rights convention. Winston Churchill would be turning in his grave. Doing so would only make it harder for each of us as individuals to hold the government to account and stop it trampling on our freedoms”. 

 

‘Farage wants to follow his idol Vladimir Putin in ripping up the human rights convention. Winston Churchill would be turning in his grave’

 

Elsewhere, The human rights lawyer Adam Wagner KC said Reform’s promises were not only “legally extreme” but fundamentally misleading. 

“A lot of the rights contained in the European convention come from British common law: the right to a fair trial, freedom of religion, and the right not to be tortured,” he said. 

Even the impact on NI and the Good Friday Agreement if we to leave the ECHR can be negotiated Farage tells us. 

Unfortunately, whilst the well-meaning all make valid points, they miss one crucial factor; Reform and their supporters don’t care, they will withdraw the UK from the treaties and organisations that don’t suit them. In addition, this brings into question the independence of the judiciary, which as Trump is finding can be an impediment, will need amending. 

People look to traditions, but Reform are new, different, the old doesn’t apply to them. This largely explains their attraction to the electorate. The name of the game is disruption…. 

What of the others? 

The Tory and Labour established duopoly has prevailed for too long, they have been given plenty of chances and continually failed the electorate. They also crucially failed to heed the warnings of the GFC, austerity, and Brexit. 

Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leaders biggest concern was that Reform’s “immigration plan looks v familiar. We set out our Deportation Bill months ago. He’s copied our homework but missed the lesson. At Conference, we’ll show you not just the answers, but our working. That’s how we’ll build trust with the public and get real results.” 

Given that the Tories had years in government to deal with a problem, and only succeeded in making it worse, they are hardly in a position to opine on the subject. 

Kemi is also regularly upstaged by Robert Jenrick, her shadow justice secretary. Jenrick has joined asylum protests, and mingled in crowds alongside notorious far-right activists. Nigel Farage has, not unreasonably,  called Jenrick a “fraud”, as he was the responsible minister when the number of asylum claimants housed in hotels peaked at 56,042.  

Badenoch clearly isn’t going to revive their fortunes, however her defeat of Jenrick in last year’s leadership contest suggests that there is, or was,  a substantial portion of the party that mistrusts his agenda. 

 

‘The Tories…are merely the warm-up act for Farage as he assumes the mantle of PM in-waiting’

 

The Tories, in their current form are a spent force. Their last 14-yrs in government was a succession of failures, today are merely the warm-up act for Farage as he assumes the mantle of PM in-waiting.  

For Labour the picture doesn’t look much rosier. 

Recent asylum figures offer some hope; that number was down to 32,059 at the end of June, lower than in March but higher than a year ago. 

The cost-of-living crisis shows no sign of abating, with the British Retail Consortium (“BRC”) saying prices had risen at their fastest pace for 18-months, with food inflation hitting 4.2% this month, up from 4% in July, the highest reading since February 2024. 

The BRC also said that its data showed that overall shop price inflation increased to 0.9% in August, even as non-food products fell by 0.8%. 

Retailers including Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Boots, are warning that increasing taxes further in the autumn budget could contradict Chancellor Reeves plans to improve living standards, and warned that food inflation could hit 6% later this year. 

Another problem is the news that energy costs will rise by more than expected this autumn after the price cap for a typical annual dual-fuel bill increased by 2% (£35) to £1,755. 

The increase is in part because of an expansion of the government’s warm home discount scheme, which is expected to add about £15 to a typical bill while providing an extra 2.7 million households with a £150 reduction in their bills. 

 

‘energy costs will rise by more than expected this autumn’

 

An added burden for Chancellor Reeves is the fact that UK borrowing costs have risen sharply in recent months, increasing the cost of financing UK government debt to more than £100bn a year, C.10% of the annual budget. 

The cost of UK government borrowing has jumped to the highest level since 1998, with the yield on the  30-year Gilts hitting 5.62%,. 

There are a number of reasons for this spike, but one appears more insidious than the rest.  

In “Whoever controls the media, controls the mind” and “The real question is, who governs?”, I questioned the role of the media in our politics. 

Last Sunday (24-08), the Telegraph claimed “Britain “heading towards IMF Bailout.” 

The article was pure speculation presented as fact, and cited a leading right-wing economist warning the UK economy is at risk of imminent “collapse”. One of their columnists further stoked the fires, writing the UK “will not be able to meet pensions payments.” 

Markets are information sensitive, articles like this spooks them, leading to selling forcing down prices and increasing yields. This was little more than the media playing politics, and, in doing so, the supposed patriots pushed the country further into debt. All to get rid of a government that isn’t to their taste.  

The Gilts market is a key indicator of the country’s economic health. The government hasn’t helped itself with a lack of imaginative solutions, and painting itself into a corner with self-imposed fiscal rules. However, we don’t need rabid right-wingers deliberately publishing scare stories as they further seek to undermine the government by weakening market sentiment.  

And, the markets did take notice, it was reported in both US media and right-wing financial commentary sites such as Zero-hedge.  

The great irony is that the governments management of the economy is restricted by Farage’s failed vision, namely Brexit. It fascinates me that he remains largely unchallenged on the subject. There is zero likelihood of the PM doing so. As we know, he prefers softer targets. 

To summarise, Reform, like most populists, trade in myths. For example, Farage’s migration plans presuppose we can deport 288,000 people annually, C.800 a day, – 30x the current number.  

Also in-common with other populists, there is the hidden agenda of destroying public trust in democratic institutions, crush legal constraints and turning fear into power. Rather than fixing the asylum system, they want to dismantle the political framework necessary to achieve that goal, I.E., the treaties, parliamentary conventions and centuries of legal protections. He, like his contemporaries, will govern with executive orders draped in nationalism. 

The practical flaws to his plan are numerous, not least the cooperation of the countries people are fleeing. But, this isn’t a plan, it’s a vision for the masses to fuel their resentment. He paints pictures of a  Britain is being invaded by “fighting-age men” who are threatening “our women and girls”. Of, how they are protected by the elite, while “activist” lawyers and foreign courts hold the country hostage.  

His sudden concern for women’s safety is nothing but naked opportunism. In this he is supported by an increasingly hysterical right-wing media seeing immigrant rapists on every street corner. 

He is a Trump tribute act. Like his master, he will soon be enthral to the economic elites, dressed-up as national restoration.  

Despite all of this, he looks like a winner. Perhaps by default, and the two-main parties disintegrate into tribute acts unable to think for themselves. 

Some commentators question the practicality of Reform’s policies. 

Others look to the data: Joe Twyman, the co-founder of the polling company Deltapoll, said: “About one in six people endorse very strong views on legal or settled migrants, and that number hasn’t really changed. 

 

‘Momentum is key, Farage clearly has it. Can he maintain it until 2029? Maybe’

 

“What Farage is doing is tapping into a longstanding but still relatively small minority. The reason he’s doing this is for the vibes – he wants people to hear a hardline message on migration and thinks most people won’t care about the detail.” 

Sunder Katwala, the director of the thinktank British Future, said: “Between a fifth and a quarter have no sympathy for people crossing the Channel – that’s Farage’s core vote. 

Farage’s strength is the main parties weakness;  A Labour spokesperson, when asked if the PM had moral misgivings about Farage’s speech or the language he used, replied: “We totally recognise the concerns that the British people have with the surge in illegal migration … but we are focused on taking forward the practical actions and solutions that will deal with it.” 

Momentum is key, Farage clearly has it. Can he maintain it until 2029? Maybe.  

A week is a longtime in politics, 4-yrs is even more! 

 

 

“There’s a great and a bloody fight
‘Round this whole world tonight” 

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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