Feb
2025
Mr Brightside: “I’m So Bored With The USA #I”
DIY Investor
4 February 2025
“Yankee dollar talk
To the dictators of the world
In fact it’s giving orders
An’ they can’t afford to miss a word”
Trump continues to dominate the headlines, and for all the wrong reasons
As Mussolini, my mother, pointed out, Trump is one of the few politicians that does what he promised. Unfortunately, he is amongst the few that you hoped wouldn’t!
Last week, he has caused chaos at home rescinding order he had made only days before that froze C. $3tn in federal grants and loans.
That decision caused confusion across America, as hospitals, schools, non-profits, research organizations, pre-school programs and police departments wondered if they lost federal financial support. Also impacted was the Medicaid system that provides healthcare to millions of low-income Americans.
In response, a federal judge temporarily blocked the order in response to lawsuits claiming that Trump had no authority to freeze funds allocated by Congress.
Trump’s argument was that federal spending must be aligned with “presidential priorities” while reviews are undertaken and gave officials until 10 February to report to the Office of Management and Budget.
‘As Mussolini, my mother, pointed out, Trump is one of the few politicians that does what he promised’
In addition, a separate initiative barred certain spending Trump disagreed with, including programs involving “diversity, equity and inclusion” and non-government organizations he believes undermine the national interest. He also ordered a 90-day freeze on all foreign aid spending, which has jeopardised congressionally authorised foreign assistance, including military aid to Ukraine and the distribution of medications in Africa and developing nations.
All of this is illegal; under the US constitution, Congress holds the power of the purse, and Congress approved – that is, “appropriated” – all these payments. He does have the power to pause previously appropriated spending for review purposes, but these moves imply stopping the spending.
This isn’t about shrinking the size of the federal government, they are more about centralising control of the federal government in Trump’s hands.
We move onto his decision to impose 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, while China is being hit with tariffs of 10% on imports, leading some economists to fear the outbreak of a tit-for-tat trade war.
Mark Carney, the favourite to replace Justin Trudeau as the Canadian PM, and former governor of the BoE, said: “President Trump probably thinks Canada will cave in, but we are going to stand up to a bully, we’re not going to back down. We’re united and we will retaliate.”
The Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has also threatened retaliation, but said she would “wait with a cool head” for Trump’s tariff decision and was prepared to continue a border dialogue with him.
China has been more circumspect about its retaliation plans, but has vowed to respond to defend its trade interests. A spokesman said, China “firmly opposes” Trump’s new duties, adding: “There is no winner in a trade war or tariff war, which serves the interests of neither side nor the world.”
‘we are going to stand up to a bully, we’re not going to back down. We’re united and we will retaliate’
We, however, might be exempted as Trump feels the PM has been ‘nice’! Or, does he mean a push-over? Trump also implied that he was trying to peel Britain away from the EU, whom he described as “an atrocity”.
Trump has also threatened to follow up with a further wave of tariffs against the EU, who have a trade surplus with the US. Tariffs would hit economies already suffering from anaemic levels of growth and an ongoing cost of living crisis. They might also be part of a bigger picture, as Trump’s big tech buddies attempt to undermine Brussels’ attempts to properly regulate social media, and protect their own overweening power to influence debate.
Trump is little different to Putin; a fascist bully hellbent on expanding his country’s territorial reach. We all got terribly animated over Putin’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, however it remains to be seen if that will be the case with Trump as he casts his greedy eye over Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal.
Trump seems determined to annex Greenland. A few days ago he was accused of aggressive rhetoric in a raging 45-minute call with the Danish PM, Mette Frederiksen, during which he threatened crippling tariffs unless she agreed to sell the autonomous territory to the US. Now, responding to Denmark’s increase in military spending for the Arctic, including ships and drones, he derided them as “dog-sled” defences.
The reaction from both Europe and the UK has been muted. Why?
The relationship between Copenhagen and Nuuk (Greenland’s capital) is complex, with the latter pushing for independence. A recent survey published in the Greenlandic newspaper Sermitsiaq and the Danish Berlingske reveal that 85% of Greenlanders do not want to join the US. However, there are fears that if Denmark’s reactions to Trump’s territorial designs are too vocal, it could alienate Greenlanders and push the island further into the US orbit.
European leaders appear to be cognisant of this, their public silence and behind-the-scenes work appear to be coordinated, with Frederiksen meeting with the leaders of Norway, Sweden and Finland, as well as Germany, France and Nato’s secretary general, Mark Rutte, in recent days. Cooperation between the EU and Greenland is also intensifying on issues such as energy and critical raw materials.
‘Trump is little different to Putin; a fascist bully hellbent on expanding his country’s territorial reach’
The cooperation is also required in dealing with Ukraine. The EU will need to fight to ensure that an unjust peace deal is not imposed by Washington.
This unity of purpose has been stressed by both Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz if were to ensure that European interests and values are to be adequately defended. Sadly, both preside over countries mired in domestic political crises likely to stretch into the summer and beyond.
Germany, especially, is falling victim to the rise of populist nationalism, cheered on by Elon Musk. In Berlin, the traditional cordon sanitaire excluding the far right from mainstream politics was breached this week as Friedrich Merz, Germany’s likely next chancellor, relied on AfD votes to pass an opposition motion despite pledging not to.
There is also the less edifying, explanation is that Europeans have bigger fish to fry with Trump, such as ensuring he remains engaged on the question of European military security, starting with Ukraine, and avoiding a trade war. Perhaps, their silence on Greenland highlight priorities?
It would be a collective disgrace if Europe and the UK were prepared to sacrifice Denmark / Greenland. It would represent a level of appeasement not seen since the 1930s. Giving in to bullies doesn’t stop them, it encourages them. Just ask Peter Clemenza: “…You know, you gotta stop them at the beginning. Like they should have stopped Hitler at Munich, they should never let him get away with that, they was just asking for trouble“. (1)
‘people are scared of Trump and the collective power of the USA, and like all bullies Trump senses this, he revels in it, and is upping the ante’
Clearly, people are scared of Trump and the collective power of the USA, and like all bullies Trump senses this, he revels in it, and is upping the ante.
There also seems to be a feeling that this is just a storm, and like all storms it will pass, and that the threat to Europe will wither away or that his attention will inevitably turn elsewhere.
As the Guardian wrote; “if a US president threatening an EU member state doesn’t jolt Europe out of its complacent slumber, then what will?”
The last word goes to Anders Vistisen, a Danish member of the European Parliament, has joined the column’s list of heroes after making a speech responding to Trump’s bullying over Greenland, telling him to “fuck off“.
Turning to the UK, it growth, baby, growth!
Part of this growth will be, in PM Starmer’s words, driven by becoming an “AI superpower”.
What is missing from this is that we are, yet again, Johnny Come Lately. China, like other east Asian countries before them, took a strategic view of the industries they wanted to be competitive in, invested heavily to get them established, protected them when they were in their infancy, and waited patiently for the results. Unlike the UK, there has been no dogged belief in market forces, nor has there been an aversion to picking winners.
This looks to be just another initiative from a government with a wish, growth, but no clear idea as to how it might be achieved.
AI looks just another fad, as was the pledge to be clean and green. The latter now appears to be so last week, darling, as we rush to developed a third-terminal at Heathrow.
‘we are, yet again, Johnny Come Lately’
Perhaps, jettisoning our previous environmental commitments is a nod to the new Trump administration.
Perhaps we should be grateful for a Labour government, irrespective of their rightwards trajectory, rather than one intent on mass deportations and dismantling of the state. However, policies such as expanding Heathrow bring us closer to the political forces that enabled Trump.
This all begs the question, what does Labour believe in?
The Heathrow plan is only the latest, most visible indication of Labour’s drift to the right. Austerity and deregulation are back, as is zero tolerance for benefit fraud. Both stricter taxation on non-doms, and post-2008 banking regulations are being dismantled, while the long-touted climate and nature bill is quietly sidelined.
None of these fanciful infrastructure projects will materialise before the end of the decade, however, chancellor Reeves is preparing another round of austerity for this April. Next week, the Office for Budget Responsibility will start laying out how far adrift the public finances are from the fiscal rules that Reeves claims are “non-negotiable”. With the economy flatlining since summer, she is preparing to cut social security, as well as civil servants’ jobs.
Prior to the election Labour pledged now tax rises, and then increased taxes by £40bn. The £28bn a year fund for investment in green energy is so shrunken it is barely visible. And, instead of heeding Biden’s warning of a new tech oligarchy, we are cosying up to the AI sector.
What we are seeing is a stealthy return to neoliberalism. Whatever growth these scattergun polices might achieve will not be evenly distributed. The winners will be the same old symbols of financial capitalism’s excesses – property developers, financial institutions and corporations such as Amazon.
‘in 2022 he said that trickle-down economics “is a piss take”’
The losers will be pretty much everyone else, especially the very working-class communities Labour is supposed to champion. And, this is nothing new.
As the Foundational Economy Collective of academics and researchers show, of all the growth in take-home pay between 1999 and 2020, the top 10% of households made off with 25%, while the bottom 10% got only 3%.
The cost-of-living-crisis might no longer make headlines, but, for many, it hasn’t gone away. Between 2022 and the eve of last summer’s general election, the researchers found, the poorest 10% were spending 95% of any increase in disposable pay on food, rent, energy and transport – the essentials to get by.
As a result, Labour’s growth plans could deliver the same result for the party as they did for the Democrat – defeat. As Biden found, growth concentrated in the hands of the few, does not translate into security or prosperity for the majority. Starmer seems to have forgotten this; in 2022 he said that trickle-down economics “is a piss take”.
As a result, the UK will find itself in the same position as America, embracing a populist.
‘We are entering an era of four-party politics’
A study commissioned by Hope Not Hate, and conducted by the Focaldata and comprising C.18,000 voters, found that Reform would win 76 seats if an election were held now, according to a constituency-by-constituency model. Of those, 60 would be won from Labour, including seats across the “red wall”, as well as in Wales and across the south of England.
Its analysis of almost 4,000 voters currently minded to back Reform found that one in five were “moderate, interventionist” voters who were unlike those who had backed Farage at the last election or supported Ukip or the Brexit party in the past.
The study also found that a 3% swing to Reform from both Labour and the Conservatives, would see Reform win 169-seats. Reform are currently picking up 12% of those who voted for the Conservatives at the last election and 7% of those who backed Labour.
Furthermore, Reform is also making significantly more inroads in certain seats, picking-up between 10% and 15% of those who voted Labour at the last election in seats with large white working-class populations.
However, defections to Reform are much lower in Labour’s more diverse metropolitan seats.
We are entering an era of four-party politics. In addition to the 266-seats where there is less than 6% between the top two parties, there are also 60 three-way marginals and one four-way marginal.
The survey found that Reform voters were an unusual coalition; newer, more moderate voters, “radical young men” inspired by the likes of Elon Musk and older groups of Conservative and working-class voters opposed to immigration.
Should anyone need reminding of the damage Reform could inflict, let’s not forget that Farage’s last gift to us was Brexit. Following is a graphic from a recent YouGov poll on Brexit:
Conclusion; be careful what you wish for!
“Well, it just goes to show, things are not what they seem
Please, Sister Morphine, turn my nightmares into dreams”
Notes:
- “The Godfather”
‘By now it should be clear to even the most myopic that Trump is a threat to any form of civilised society. He represents the worst form of fascist bully, intent on using the US’s economic and military might to unsettle the entire world.
Economically, he is throwing his weight around imposing trade tariffs as sees fit.
Territorially, he is seemingly hellbent on taking over other people’s sovereign territory, such as Panama and the canal, and Greenland. His ambitions with Canada, appear little different to Hitler’s Anschluss with Austria, although I doubt any Canadians will welcome it in the way many misguided Austrians did.
The Ukraine and Gaza appear likely to become pawns in a global game played by him and his mates in Russia and Israel.
He seems to like us and Starmer though, which suggests to me that we are being compliant and doing what we are told.
As Biden’s time as president shows, the traditional economic metrics of GDP and stock markets are meaningless to the majority. For them the metrics are unemployment and inflation. The third, which measures just how unequal they are, is the GINI coefficient.
Trump came to power because mainstream politicians had failed in the eyes of the majority of the electorate, and Farage will continue to flourish because the two UK mainstream parties continue to fail.
The Tories had 14-yrs of getting it wrong, and Labour are showing themselves to be equally clueless, as they continue to tilt at the same windmills; growth driven by neoliberalism, featuring austerity.
The reason Labour will fail is simple; they no longer know what they are. As a result, they have no idea of their direction of travel, and their sweeping majority is being squandered.
The Hope Not Hate survey shows very clearly how Reform are benefitting from the failings of both traditional parties. They don’t need to do anything, just highlight all the mistakes and watch the other parties implode.
All we need now is Reform to give us Brexit II.
Lyrically, we start with the Clash and “I’m so bored With the USA”. I am considering using that to rename the column, Starmer’s entire persona makes “Mr Brightside” a mockery. We finish with “Sister Morphine” in tribute to the late Mariann Faithful, whose “Broken English” album is recommended listening. Although, Sister Morphine might be a more apt name for our current chancellor.
There isn’t anything to enjoy.
Philip’
@coldwarsteve
Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.
Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s
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