Sep
2024
Mr Brightside: Politicians Making a Spectacle of Themselves
DIY Investor
24 September 2024
“And a really fine pair of shades
Means everything”
In the short-time that Starmer has been PM, there have been clear displays of political naivety, not to mention excessive doom and gloom
Policy wise, the majority of pensioners have lost their winter fuel allowance at time when heating costs are set to rise. This doesn’t look optically smart politics, especially when allied to the seemingly excessive gifts from donors.
As the Guardian wrote, “taking essential things away from those with not very much at all while giving the appearance of being perfectly happy to help yourself to luxuries is not a great look.”
During the election, Starmer said politics must repair itself if it is to ask for sacrifices and belt-tightening from the public. “Politics must make the first move,” the manifesto insisted. Despite these words the lure of freebies overcame all, this naivety has led to totally self-inflicted damage, and feeds the electorates belief that all politicians are the same.
‘taking essential things away from those with not very much at all while giving the appearance of being perfectly happy to help yourself to luxuries is not a great look’
This is now being directly reflected in opinion polls. An Ipsos polling in the FT showed that half of British voters are disappointed in how Labour has governed so far, with Starmer’s approval ratings worse than those of any of his predecessors except Liz Truss.
Opinium found that Starmer’s approval rating has plunged below that of the Tory leader Rishi Sunak, suffering a huge 45-point drop since July. While 24% of voters approve of the job he is doing, 50% disapprove, giving him a net rating of -26%. Sunak’s net rating is one point better.
The PM isn’t alone in this, his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has seen a 36-point drop in her net approval since July.
With an austerity sounding budget only weeks away, this might get worse before it gets better!
All of this comes during an age of low public trust, and the government’s policy of dampening expectations has been delivered with a needless surplus of gloom.
‘Starmer’s approval ratings worse than those of any of his predecessors except Liz Truss’
There is little new in a government blaming the last, and this time around it has been delivered in spades, and no one should doubt the political and financial maladministration of 14-yrs of Tory misrule.
Nonetheless there is a need for optimism, if nothing else positivity breeds confidence, which might see the public spending and business starting to invest, the basic requirements for economic growth
Putting things right will take time. But that morose message has been soured by a performance of fiscal discipline, delivered without a hint of uplifting accompaniment.
Instead we have pessimism, things getting worse before they get better, “black holes” in the budget, withdraws winter fuel payments for all but the poorest pensioners and pledges of more pain to come. The arguments that cuts were needed to compensate for government departments outspending budgets by £22bn more than previously disclosed, is based on self-imposed restriction that stems from ill-advised fiscal rules, that are based on political choice. A decision based on persuading the public that Labour could be trusted on the economy by adhering to Tory spending limits.
‘that morose message has been soured by a performance of fiscal discipline, delivered without a hint of uplifting accompaniment’
Besides proving that Labour could be trusted to manage the economy, there was a clear decision to shape Starmer’s leadership largely around winning back patriotic, often socially conservative red-wall voters who want tight controls on state spending and immigration.
This clearly succeeded as the party won back 37 of the 38 seats lost in 2019.
However, deeper analysis by Focaldata Labour’s share of the vote only increased from 38% to 41%. Far more voters switched from the Conservatives to Reform, and this split on the right was mainly responsible for Labour capturing so many seats. Encouraging and exploiting such a split was part of Labour’s strategy: a forthcoming book on the election by Tim Ross and Rachel Wearmouth says the party deliberately did not campaign much against Reform. But with Reform now second behind Labour in 89 seats, in the red wall and beyond, and Reform’s favourite issue, immigration, often dominating politics since the election, usually to the government’s discomfort, the wisdom of Labour’s decision not to take on the party during the election is increasingly open to question.
‘Labour turned right to regain the red wall, which, in turn, led to more “traditional” supporters turning to the Greens, Lib Dems and leftwing independents’
In effect Labour turned right to regain the red wall, which, in turn, led to more “traditional” supporters turning to the Greens, Lib Dems and leftwing independents. Which, whilst they won a sweeping majority, was based on the lowest of any winning party for a century. Post-the election, much of what the government has said and done will continue to alienate leftwing and liberal voters.
And, the party still continues to tack right, Starmer’s praise for the “remarkable progress” of the far-right Italian premier Giorgia Meloni’s authoritarian approach to refugees means that the next time Nigel Farage says something vile about immigrants, it will sound more respectable to mainstream voters.
And Farage and his hordes clearly see opportunity. During their conference last week, the deputy leader, Richard Tice , said: “Nigel is the leader of a party that is now becoming mainstream, international affairs, our relationship with our most important, strategic international partner – the US – is very important and the world will be a safer place if Donald Trump wins the presidential election. Nigel’s strong relationship with Donald Trump is actually to the benefit of this country and it’s quite right that he cements and strengthens that.”
In his speech, Farage told the conference, “We can win the next general election just with the numbers of people that agree with our principles.
“What we have to do is to be credible. What we have to do is be on the ground everywhere. What we have to do is to show that we can bring success after success after success. If we do those things, we genuinely can.”
‘26% of Labour voters would seriously consider or consider voting for Reform in future’
Farage later said that Labour was Reform’s prime target, referring to a recent poll suggesting 26% of Labour voters would seriously consider or consider voting for Reform in future, saying: “I think these big themes around family, community, country appeal very much to an old Labour target.”
During his slot, Lee Anderson ripped up a letter telling him to pay his TV licence fee, to cheers from the crowd.
Then there was former soldier and reality TV star Ant Middleton (Channel 4’s SAS: Who Dares Wins) who warned that mass civil unrest was imminent because the British identity was being “eradicated”, and that unnamed forces were trying to distract people from the country’s problems, so “they can control you”.
Before moving on I have looked up some the pre- 2024 election pledges made by Reform:
- Freeze on ‘non-essential’ immigration, within this the key points were; Small boats smuggling migrants across the Channel, the plan was to “pick up illegal migrants out of boats and take them back to France”. But it does not explain how it would persuade France to accept that. “Zero illegal migrants” would be resettled in the UK. Asylum seekers arriving illegally would be processed rapidly and “offshore” if necessary. Those rejected would be “returned“.
- Scrapping targets for net zero and related subsidies would save £30bn per year
- A £35bn-a-year raid on banks by ceasing to pay interest on the £700bn of bonds held at the Bank of England as a result of the post-financial crisis Quantitative Easing programme. Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England governor, has said a tax on banks would raise the cost of borrowing for people and businesses.
- Royal commission for social care to draw up a national plan for a sustainable system to support people who are older and disabled in the community.
- An extra £17bn for NHS
The above sums-up the attractions of populism, back of a fag packet policies, that are optically attractive and play up to people’s bigoted views. There is a focus on what but little explanation as to how, or the impact of something.
For example, most economists judge that the costs of the UK failing to pursue net zero will ultimately be greater than the costs of achieving it. The OBR produced a scenario of “unmitigated global warming” in 2021 which showed UK public sector net debt rising to 300% of GDP by the end of the century due to economic shocks of a hotter climate.
‘sums-up the attractions of populism, back of a fag packet policies, that are optically attractive and play up to people’s bigoted views’
Or, the raid on banks, which Andrew Bailey, the governor of the BoE, has said would raise the cost of borrowing for people and businesses.
Carl Emmerson, a deputy director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, reviewed these proposal and said: “Even with the extremely optimistic assumptions about how much economic growth would increase, the sums in this manifesto do not add up.”
Source: https://ifs.org.uk/articles/reform-uk-manifesto-reaction
Despite this, I think Reform has every reason to be optimistic, as the main parties have clearly failed.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) in its regional regeneration index and online regional dashboard found that London’s living standard are the highest: but over the last five years the gap between it, the NW, NE and the Midlands has close to doubled or worse; for example the gap between London and Yorkshire and the Humber has trebled.
In terms of productivity growth, this is increasing in London but stagnating, even falling, elsewhere. The metrics on mental health or even life expectancy are going backwards retreat. The largest gaps that have emerged between prosperous and poor areas are in primary school educational standards, housing and public transport.
‘I think Reform has every reason to be optimistic, as the main parties have clearly failed’
Treasury accounting rules allow for public infrastructure project where there is most demand, this makes them appear “efficient”, but skews projects towards London and the SE, and the expense of left-behind areas.
The Tories levelling up fund was 3.5% of total infrastructure investment. This, in itself was derisory, but it was misused supporting Tory MPs’ towns, however well-off or poor.
The NIESR found that the UK’s regional inequalities are among the worst of 38 advanced countries. Unless there is a fundamental change in investment and priorities, it says, “there will be no significant progress on narrowing the economic and social gap by 2030 or even 2035”. And, that is likely to be the case as public investment as a share of GDP is set to fall from 2.5% of GDP to 1.7% by the end of this parliament.
Reasons to be cheerful…I can’t think of any!’
Labour have started badly, whichever way it is considered their adherence to fiscal orthodoxy and previous governments spending plans spell more austerity for many. To date, their actions have only served to prove people’s feelings that they are no different and will ultimately let you down.
As Starmer continues to tack rightwards, especially on immigration, he risks legitimising the more radical proposals of Reform, which is clearly the case in mainland Europe.
The Tories look likely to elect a leader from the right of the party, again this will only serve to legitimise Reform’s policies and ideas.
Reasons to be cheerful…I can’t think of any!
“Health service glasses
Gigolos and brasses”
As the not-that-great and the not-very-good congregate in Liverpool, we are reminded just how powerful was the desire to bin the Tories; and also that regardless of the colour of their rosette, politicians are all ‘at it’.
So how has Philip seen Labour’s almost entirely lacklustre and uninspiring start to it’s time at the helm, and will that time be truncated by what seems like a totally needless decision to burgle pensioners?:
‘As we move through the party conference season it is interesting to see the mood of attendees.
Labour are back in government for the first time since 2010, with a thumping majority. But, it already feels as if there is an air of despondency, almost midterm blues after 3-months. The chancellor repeated that she had no option but to cut the pensioner’s winter fuel allowance, but there is always an option…
What with the ongoing freebies issue, and a miserable sounding budget to come, all in all, it’s not a good start.
The LibDems by comparison were enjoying their success and looking to the future.
The standout for all manner of reasons was Reform. We had bile from Lee Anderson, some ex-squaddie tv celeb I had never heard of predicting more riots coming to a town near you soon. Then there was Farage and his dad-dancing, clearly warming up for Oasis’s reunion….”you’re my red wall…..”
But, they have much to be positive about. If Labour continues to disappoint as a Tory tribute, and with the Tory’s not understanding that they lost because the electorate don’t want a Reform tribute act, then I can only see Farage and his hordes prospering. The only thing I can see keeping them away from a meaningful share of the seats is our first-past-the-post electoral system.
Not much to smile about here.
Lyrically we start with Iggy Pop and “Shades”, dedicated to our PM, who proves you can never have too many pairs. We play out with Ian Drury and “Reasons to be Cheerful Pt.3, if only I could think of one!
Enjoy!
Philip’
@coldwarsteve
Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.
Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s
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