Oct
2024
Mr Brightside: Shambles! There is Just So Much Wrong
DIY Investor
3 October 2024
“I was not the only the one who would’ve died
What was wrong in the eyes of the cruel and unwise”
If Brexit was the “Never Ending Story”, then the Post Office (“PO”) Horizon scandal is the never ending tragedy
Unfortunately it is a tragedy that reflects what is wrong with the country. As readers will know, I summarise this, rather inelegantly, as big fucks small; a combination of government and business not giving a damn about people. We are all little more than collateral damage.
It doesn’t matter with you are a sub-postmaster, a pensioner struggling to stay warm, or families penalised by benefit caps, we are just a cost, numbers on a spreadsheet.
Henry Staunton, the former chair of the PO, who was sacked by the then business secretary, Kemi Badenoch, in January has warned of another Horizon-style scandal if so-called “untouchable” investigators and executives involved in the prosecution of sub-postmasters are not fired before the organisation rolls out its new IT system.
‘big fucks small; a combination of government and business not giving a damn about people. We are all little more than collateral damage’
There is still millions of pounds in dispute between what sub-postmasters and the Post Office have recorded. As a result, before the replacement for Horizon is rolled out – a system that itself is full of bugs and whose projected costs have doubled to more than £800m – the Post Office must deal with staff involved in the wrongful prosecution of more than 700 sub-postmasters.
Saf Ismail, one of two sub-postmasters who sit on the board of the Post Office, has also referred to a “red” list of 23 other employees deemed high-risk given their involvement in the scandal in one way or other, none of whom have even been suspended.
Staunton said: “I am very afraid if [sub-postmasters] are investigated [after the new IT system is implemented] by the so-called untouchables we could have another debacle – not to the same extent – but we could have hundreds of sub-postmasters having to pay out monies. This is a big issue going forward, the involvement of the untouchables. It is not some sort of academic exercise. It is really fundamental to what we do next time.”
Back in September, Jo Hamilton, one of a group of sub-postmasters pursued relentlessly by PO investigators, when addressing the audience at the National Television Awards that she was disappointed by a lack of progress with payouts since Labour came to power.
“What I’d like you to know is I went to Westminster a couple of weeks back and saw the new minister,” she said. “And trust me, nothing has changed.”
‘This isn’t complicated if you want to do something you do it’
As boos rose from the celebrity crowd – aimed at those she was referring to in power – she added: “It’s true, and almost all of these people behind me haven’t been paid yet.”
In response to her comments, ministers said they were working “tirelessly” on the compensation schemes for those affected.
This isn’t complicated if you want to do something you do it. They are the government, they make the rules
Last month, Sir Alan Bates said the Department for Business and Trade appeared to be trying to get away with paying out as little as possible to victims while maximising the income for the legal firms involved.
Post office operators affected by the Horizon IT scandal will not all receive payouts by the March 2025 deadline called for by the campaigner Sir Alan Bates, the postal minister has admitted.
Gareth Thomas said it would be difficult to achieve the deadline but promised that there would be “substantial progress” toward clearing the compensation claim backlog by next summer.
‘projects such as hospital improvements, road building and defence projects being slowed down or stopped altogether’
As a result, the admirable Sir Alan is considering further legal action if the compensation process was not resolved more quickly.
A former Post Office finance chief has said the company’s chief executive, Nick Read, prefers to work with teams of “younger, deferential males”, with very few senior roles held by female colleagues. This column understands that there is no truth in the rumour that Philip Schofield has applied to join the team!
What little hope the sub-postmasters had of being compensated is likely to be further reduced as chancellor Reeves turn the austerity screw.
It is reported that ministers are being asked to draw up billions of pounds in cuts to infrastructure projects over the next 18-months despite Rachel Reeves pledging to invest more to grow the economy. As part of this they are modelling cuts to each departments investment plans of up to 10% of their annual capital spending.
This is all part of repairing the £22bn black hole, and would mean projects such as hospital improvements, road building and defence projects being slowed down or stopped altogether.
Ben Zaranko, a senior research economist at the IFS, said: “Capital budgets are often the first place governments go when they need to find quick savings. It’s easier to cancel a building project that hasn’t started yet than it is to lay off staff.
“But these cuts add up over time, and are one reason why our public services are less efficient than we might like, and why large parts of the public realm are in such a dire state.”
“The only way to end the UK’s economic stagnation, fix our crumbling public services and ensure climate targets are met is to increase public investment”
Tom Railton, director of the Invest in Britain campaign, said: “The only way to end the UK’s economic stagnation, fix our crumbling public services and ensure climate targets are met is to increase public investment. Not only do leading economists agree, the public does, too.
“We need more public investment, not less – and a fiscal framework that supports long-term planning, not short-term bookkeeping.”
For the opposition, Mel Stride, the shadow work and pensions secretary, said: “If the government comes forward with plans to cut vital productivity-boosting investment then that is a cause for real concern.
“The fiscal rules are deliberately focused on a five-year horizon to avoid making sudden cuts of this kind. We should be finding ways to increase capital funding, not reduce it.”
This is the same Mel who was part of the government that caused much of this mess, and, who didn’t make the cut in the parties leadership election in a field constituted of dire alternatives.
‘Small wonder they lost the election when you consider that 77% of voters worry about the climate crisis’
Which brings me onto the Tory party conference, the Mad Hatters Tea Party. And they were all there…
Loopy Liz telling anyone who would listen that she was misunderstood, and she would have done better than Rishi Sunak. Lord (David) Frost rubbishing net zero, arguing that renewables are too expensive, gas is king, and who needs windmills when we can have nuclear power? Just “adapt” to climate change, he says. Small wonder they lost the election when you consider that 77% of voters worry about the climate crisis.
Their internal identity crisis can be summed-up the tug of war between the right who are desperate to regain northern “red wall” votes lost to Reform, and the moderates pursuing southern votes lost to the LibDems.
“I don’t think we are ready for changing the principle of free at the point of use, certainly not immediately”
Mel Stride (yes, him again) told conference “We offered a huge £18bn in tax cuts. £18bn!”. At that point they should realise that people have moved on, they understand that tax is the cost of good public services.
And what of the candidates? Well, Kemi Badenoch has had a shocker…. Firstly, she suggested that maternity pay was “excessive” (it’s among the lowest in the OECD). She rambled into a no-go zone when musing that in the future, NHS reform might mean charging: “I don’t think we are ready for changing the principle of free at the point of use, certainly not immediately.”
She followed this by saying that there were some civil servants who were obstructive. “There’s about 5-10% of them who are very, very bad. You know, should-be-in-prison bad.
“Leaking official secrets, undermining their ministers … agitating. I had some of it in my department, usually union-led, but most of them actually want to do a good job. And the good ones are very frustrated by the bad ones.”
The other right-wing candidate is Robert Jenrick, one of his supporters, Danny Kruger, told one meeting: “We need to win the culture war.” This seems to ignore the fact that a More in Common polling shows overwhelmingly that this doesn’t interest the public.
Jenrick then talked himself into trouble, claiming that special forces were shooting terrorists rather than detaining them because of fears over European law. A statement that was censured by former defence secretaries and fellow leadership candidate Tom Tugendhat.
And, what of Tom? Well, reportedly only four MPs attended to hear Tom Tugendhat introduced as “the next prime minister of the most successful party in the world”. Maybe the non-attendees were better briefed as he said nothing much, other than talking up his record in the military and as security minister. “I’m not here to manage. I’m here to lead.”
‘Of the four hopeless hopefuls, former home secretary James Cleverly was the one who appeared to seize the momentum’
Of the four hopeless hopefuls, former home secretary James Cleverly was the one who appeared to seize the momentum in the contest, calling on his party to be “more normal”. The odds on Cleverly reaching the final two in the members’ vote have shortened dramatically over the course of the past 48 hours – though the choice of which two out of the four will be in the hands of Conservative MPs next week.
Cleverly ruled out any cooperation with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party. “Mark my words, we will beat Reform by being the best version of ourselves, not a pale version of anyone else. So no mergers, no deals.”
As an ex-Tory I feel that Cleverly is the most electable and, for the majority of Tory voters, the most palatable.
Tugendhat is a lightweight and appears out of his depth. Maybe a decent MP and cabinet member, but not a leader or PM. Jenrick is like, Johnson, an opportunist of no fixed abode, who has become progressively more right-wing as he think it’s his best opportunity. Badenoch is mad, she could cause a fight in an empty room.
The collective problem is that they are still fighting yesterday’s election with yesterday’s policies. Post- Brexit and post-Covid the electorate have become more left-wing, they see the need for taxes to support the state they want, and the need for collective government action.
‘The collective problem is that they are still fighting yesterday’s election with yesterday’s policies’
Tax cuts and a small state are now only the priority of the few Tory voters that remain.. Only a tenth of voters polled say they want the government to reduce taxes and spend less.
At a fringe event for the thinktank Demos, Sir John Curtice echoed this, saying that the pandemic had pushed society in the opposite direction to the one Tory candidates want to drive it to. And, you don’t need the polls to know that Sunak’s tax cuts had very little impact with voters.
A number of the red wallers that proved so decisive for Johnson in 2019, became increasingly disillusioned by Partygate, Truss’s economic debacle, the cost of living crisis, the state of the NHS and high levels of taxation, defected to Reform. However, as Curtice pointed out, those that were similarly discontented but who wanted a bigger state defected to Labour.
‘With Labour making a dogs dinner of their big chance, this leaves UK politics wide open’
As with many things the effect of Covid on public sentiment is still being realised. What the pandemic did prove was that during times of stress collectivism is required. As a result voters are becoming ever more socially liberal, this applies to both society and the economy. The Conservatives are being left behind look out of touch. At the last election, only 8% of 18- to 29-year-olds voted for the party. Only 12% of those in their 30s backed the Conservatives.
The Tories seems unaware of this and increasingly look to be yesterday’s solution. With Labour making a dogs dinner of their big chance, this leaves UK politics wide open. The winner might not be the party with the best solution, but the one who tells voters what they want to hear.
Just as was the case in Austria.
“The order is rapidly fadin’
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin”
‘As the situation in the middle east appears to be approaching the point of no return, I wonder how much longer this column can avoid commenting.
Israel clearly sees this as an opportunity to reach a final solution and advance all the way north and take control of Lebanon and, at the same time, the Left Bank.
Interestingly, most other Arab countries seem content to let this happen. The only opposition appears to be from Iran, but it is unclear how far they will want to push the situation.
I would imagine the key for Israel is to maintain US support. If so, the “cold war” that has existed between Iran and the US since the Iranian revolution in 1979 makes it unlikely that US support for Israel might be impacted.
I still struggle to find the “good guys”, perhaps there aren’t any.
At home the Tory conference only served to prove how out-of-date they are. Of the prospective candidates only James Cleverly appears in any way electable.
Labour seem to be determined to sabotage their own efforts. They are nowhere near dealing with the PO Horizon crisis which is disgraceful, and we have an austerity budget later this month, just as the weather is getting colder and heating more expensive.
Speaking of heating, there are the pensioners. I watched, with much amusement, a Tory party political broadcast last evening featuring pensioners moaning about their heating allowance being withdrawn. The problem was that they were all smug, middle class, and looked like they didn’t need the benefit. One told us she was still playing tennis, and I am sure another was wearing a Rolex! Oh well….
Starmer is repaying £6k worth of goodies, and, as more is revealed, it seems a number have a liking for the highlife at someone else’s expense. I somehow find it most disconcerting that so many went to see Taylor Swift, still next up will be Oasis. I wonder how many will want a lift to the gig? “ Can I ride with you in your BMW?”
Lyrically, we are too stepped in music to use Taylor Swift or Oasis. We start with “Killamangiro” by Babyshambles, because everything is a shambles. We finish with the classic “The Times They Are A-Changin’” by Bob Dylan.
Enjoy!
Philip’
@coldwarsteve
Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.
Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s
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