Mr Brightside: What Next for UK Politics? 

 

“Our lives still change from the way that we were 

And now I’ll tell you something I think you should know” 

 

Post-Brexit the political scene has appeared very unstable, with loyalties fluctuating greatly. This is highlighted by what I referred to in May 2022, as “A Tale of Two Walls.”  

The Red Wall was a Labour stronghold, that was initially radicalised during the Brexit referendum, and then deserted en masse to the Tories in 2019. This was largely responsible for Johnson’s majority, and, as a result, retaining it became a fixation for them, forcing them further to the right, and, in doing so, pushing Blue Wall voters towards Labour and the LibDems. 

The Tories failure to even begin levelling-up saw the Red Wall return to Labour, and the Blue Wall deserted them, resulting in their worst election result ever, the LibDems posting their best results since WW1, and Labour winning a sweeping majority. 

So, what now? 

Well, rather than Labour riding the crest of the wave, they have been beset by own goals, similar to those of the previous Tory administration; sleaze/expenses, negativity, and austerity. Its almost as if they have become a Tory tribute act. 

They appear frightened of being regarded as leftwing, and of their historical political philosophy. They should look to their predecessors, and also Margaret Thatcher, who was always true to her beliefs. Without an overriding philosophy politicians lack definition, and have no basis to govern from. 
 

‘Its almost as if they have become a Tory tribute act’

 
New Labour succeeded because the party accepted that their own philosophy had to be based on their leftwing roots. They based their beliefs on better outcomes for every individual, creating a third-way that combined the need for individuals (and firms) to accept reciprocal social responsibilities, so “the rights we enjoy reflect the duties we owe” – as his rewritten clause IV, which used to commit Labour to common ownership of the means of production, distribution and exchange, now states.  

In effect, Blair combined socialism and social liberalism; the former drives the creation of strong society, while the latter creates opportunity. Within this the state needs to be committed to the high public and private investment  to create the envisaged “we society.”  

Perhaps chancellor Reeves plans to rejuvenate our industrial heartlands by creating jobs in the industries such as renewable energy, with up to £21.7bn of funding over 25-years, is her ‘we society’ moment? 

The plan includes creating 4,000 jobs and billions of private investment into Teesside and Merseyside. Eventually, this could support 50,000 jobs countrywide, as jobs are created within the supply chain. 
 

‘decent housing, nutrition, transport and provision of health and social care, ladders of opportunity and the creation of a purpose-driven, innovative stakeholder capitalism’

 
As part of her statement the chancellor said the project must be a high-investment, high-productivity economy, and that inequality and social divisions impair growth, and should not be the price we pay to drive growth. The mission, she said was to build a “we society”, incorporating not just an income safety net but decent housing, nutrition, transport and provision of health and social care, ladders of opportunity and the creation of a purpose-driven, innovative stakeholder capitalism. 

The defining question might be, how much will the famed fiscal rules be relaxed or rewritten  to allow public investment to be lifted to a benchmark 3% of GDP, making a real impact on growth?     

The Tories, and the adoring media appear to be viewing Labours’ early mis-steps as a sign that, despite the electoral humiliation, their time in opposition will be only one term, an idea that defies reality. 

Voters have long memories, especially when it comes to the economy, for example it took years for voters to trust Labour after the winter of discontent in 1978-9. The chaos of Liz Truss’s brief premiership with the resultant increase in mortgage rates and the run on the pound, will be equally detrimental. 

Then there is the misconception that the economy is heading for the rocks. The UK has recovered faster and more strongly than was expected post-Truss; growth isn’t spectacular but it is solid, inflation is close to its 2% target, interest rates are gradually coming down, tax breaks are helping to stimulate business investment and the housing market is picking up. We might not be in boom times, but we are in better shape than the other major European economies. 
 

‘We might not be in boom times, but we are in better shape than the other major European economies’

 
Then there is the Tories long held belief that they are more in tune with the public because Britain is instinctively a conservative nation, with a preference for a government of the right. This might once have been true, but post-the GFC, austerity and Covid the electorate has moved to the left on economic issues. 

Within this there is the disaster that was privatisation, with the electorate now being in-favour of nationalising the railways and the public utilities, even among Conservative voters. Voters have seen the value of interventionist policies traditionally championed by the left and are supportive of them. 

Along with these misconceptions the Tories are still try fight tomorrows lections with yesterday’s policies, just as I wrote in “Shambles, There is So Much Wrong.” 

Last week, we have yesterday’s man,  Boris Johnson calling for a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European convention on human rights, which some Tories blame for hampering their efforts to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda. 

Johnson, asked if he would support a referendum on the ECHR, told the Telegraph: “I would. I think it has changed. It has become much more legally adventurist. It’s trying to second guess what national jurisdiction should do.” He added: “There’s a strong case for a proper referendum, a proper discussion about it because I’m not certain that it actually provides people with protections that they wouldn’t otherwise have.” 

This is another yesterday issue for many voters. As the graph shows support for immigration has grown post-Brexit, and is another issue where the electorate has shifted to the left post-Covid with the realisation of the need for the recruitment of migrants into lower paid or more insecure sectors such as hospitality and agriculture, where labour shortages grew acute post-Brexit. 

Within this there is a partisan divide between the two main parties. Surprisingly, Tory voters attitudes has softened over the years, and the divide is more due to Labour supporters being more pro-immigration now than they were a decade ago.  
 

 
Despite a track record that might, at best, be described as questionable, there is still a feeling that a return of Johnson would be welcomed as he was “a winner” and his ex-constituents “adored him”. 

In some ways they have a point, his policy of “levelling-up was what was needed. Like Keynes he realised that government spending can help the economy weather hard times. 
 

‘there is still a feeling that a return of Johnson would be welcomed as he was “a winner” and his ex-constituents “adored him”’

 
Post the GFC, as mayor of London, he championed Crossrail to prevent it becoming a  victim of George Osbornes’ austerity: “Those big investments – Crossrail, the Olympic site, the Westfield Centre at Shepherd’s Bush – were fortuitously timed for London: vast counter-cyclical programmes that kept the spades going into the ground and people in work.”  

Again, post-Covid, he looked to infrastructure projects, particularly in transport, saying: “we had to use this terrifying moment to our advantage … by driving on full-pelt with our investments in everything from HS2 to hospitals to broadband.” 

Another out-or-time, out-of-place former PM at the conference was Liz ‘of 49 disastrous days’ Truss, who strode on to the stage beaming, telling the faithful that the party would have done better at July’s election if she had remained in charge. 

Much has been written of the prospective candidates, but the thoughts of Alan Duncan, a former foreign office minister, interested me the most. Duncan said the clear winner was Cleverly, who exuded “an air of decency and confidence”. But he added that unfortunately “none of the candidates covered many of the issues, such as poverty, social deprivation, economic management, health, and foreign policy which the party must grasp if it is to recover.” 
 

‘Short-termism will not restore faith in democratic politics’

 
As I have written previously, he also believes that the country needs a proper opposition party: “The UK is at a dangerous moment. We have a Labour party which has just won a massive majority, with a low vote share, which is already nosediving to terrible approval ratings. The Conservative party is on its knees, but its potential leaders have preferred shallow soundbites to meaningful discussion of what went wrong, and what their vision is. Short-termism will not restore faith in democratic politics.” 

Once the 121 MPs have whittled the field down to two, it will be down to party members to decide who prevails. Quite how many there are is unknown, the last known figure was 172,000 in 2022, when they selected Liz Truss. 

The average member is 60, which is on a par with LibDem and Reform members, and not that much older than Labour members (54). However, this is somewhat misleading;  C. 40% of Conservative members are 65+, while only 2% are aged between 18 and 24. 
 

‘C. 40% of Conservative members are 65+, while only 2% are aged between 18 and 24’

 
Unsurprisingly, they are relatively well-off, 80% fall into the ABC1 rather than the C2DE category and work (or have worked) in the private sector. However, Tory members are considerably less likely than their Labour (and especially their Lib Dem) counterparts to have university degrees. 

Some two-thirds live in southern and eastern England, and well over 90% are white British. 

They are right-wing with > 90% saying immigration is too high; < 20% want to see the government increase taxes and spend more on public services, compared to C.50% who would like to see both taxes and spending cut. Interestingly, they are fairly evenly split on getting to net zero by 2050. 

Given the members profile and their past history in selecting Truss, I would expect them to prefer Jenrick, if he makes the final two. Jenrick has gone from pro-Cameron to the hard-right, saying he would vote for Trump and very anti-immigration. This sounds rather like Johnson who, when he saw an opportunity, became a Brexiter. 

Ahh yes, then there is Donald, who rhetoric continues to plumb the depths. 
 

“Look, we gotta win and if we don’t win this country’s going to hell”

 
At a  Republican fund raising dinner in Aspen back in August in Aspen, Colorado, where attendees were required to donate anywhere from $25,000 to $500,000 a couple, Trump is reported to have said: “Radical leftwing lunatics” want people to come in from prisons, mental institutions and insane asylums, although there is no evidence to support, this, adding that the US was harbouring “a record number of terrorists”. 

Trump cited a false example of 22 people he claimed had come to the US after being released from prison in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. “We said, ‘Where do you come from?’ They said, ‘Prison’. ‘What did you do?’ ‘None of your fucking business what we did.’ You know why? Because they’re murderers.” 

The Congolese government has said there is no truth to Trump’s statements. 

Trump went on: “These are the toughest people. These people are coming in from Africa, from the Middle East. They’re coming in from all parts of Asia, the bad parts, the parts where they’re rough, and the only thing good is they make our criminals look extremely nice. They make our Hell’s Angels look like the nicest people on earth.” 

Trump, who instigated an attempted coup on 6 January 2021 and has claimed that his Democratic rival Harris poses the true threat to democracy, used the exclusive event to warn of dire consequences if she becomes president. 

“Look, we gotta win and if we don’t win this country’s going to hell,” he said. “You know, there’s an expression, this could be the last election we ever have and it’s an expression that I really believe, and I believe that this could be the last election we ever have.” 

“I’m telling you we have a radical left person that’s going be president – if she wins it’s going to be a disaster – she wants to be president very badly. Thank God she’s supposed to be horrible at debating, although she’s nasty, and she’s supposed to be really bad at interviews. She can’t do an interview.” 

Readers shouldn’t forget the close relationship between Farage and Trump…. 
 

“So, we’re different colors and we’re different creeds 

And different people have different needs” 

 

‘The political world once was so simple.

Labour was socialists, believing in a big state, equality and public ownership of vital resources.

The Conservatives from the mid-70s onwards moved towards free markets, a small state, the rights of the individual and privatisation.

There were racists on both sides, although that has become less over the years

Today, it’s confused, Labour seems to believe they can only be successful at the ballot box if they are closet Tories. Whilst the Tories are fighting the demons on the hard-right by trying to imitate them.

The prime cause is inequality, perhaps Chancellor Reeves’ green spending plans will help deal with this. Although, £21.7bn is rather sad when compared to Biden’s $700bn+ Inflation reduction Act….

Lyrically we start with New Order’s “Confusion”, and we finish with Depeche Mode and “People are People”, for all those racists that need reminding.

Enjoy!

Philip’

 

@coldwarsteve 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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