inequality“Oh, you know we’ve got to find a way 
To bring some understanding here today” 

 

Global politics is seeing a goose-step, or three to the right

 
This is driven by a sense of disappointment, of being left behind by a significant percentage of the electorate, something I have considered before in articles such as “Europe and the New Right.” 

In the UK the rise of the Faragism via UKIP and now Reform, has seen the Tories double-down trying to steal his policies. As a result, Labour and the LibDems now hold the centre ground. 

The LibDems have especially benefitted, with all but two of their 61 net gains on the 2019 result coming from success in what was once blue heartlands, meaning that “Southern England is now paved with so many Lib Dem seats that it is possible to walk from their leaders constituency in SW London to Devon without leaving yellow territory.” 

They are also the main challenger in many of the seats the Tories retained. Making further inroads into traditionally Tory territory will greatly depend on what the Conservatives do next. Encouragingly for the LibDems, most of the contenders for the Tory leadership have spent most of their time arguing about how to respond to Reform, rather than addressing how they might retrieve the voters they lost. If the Tories continue to tack right, there will be more opportunities for them, whereas a more centrist Conservative leader would make Lib Dem calculations more complicated. 

Turning to Labour they now appear to be “One Nation Tories”. We have discussed at length previously their economic policy, but what else is there? 

Last week PM Starmer talked about the NHS which, he told is “will get ‘no more money without reform”. 

Starmer is still committed to the NHS; “we will not abandon those founding ideas of a public service, publicly funded, free at the point of use, the basic principle of dignity, inspired, of course, by Bevan that when you fall ill, you should never have to worry about the bill. 

The report on the NHS by Lord Darzi highlights how the NHS went from record-high public satisfaction in 2009, only for Tory austerity to reduce it to a record low. It explains that the funding promise made on the service’s 70th anniversary, in 2018, were broken, and how inequalities in availability and delivery of healthcare mean that poorer people, ethnic minorities and those with mental illnesses are particularly poorly served. 
 

‘the NHS went from record-high public satisfaction in 2009, only for Tory austerity to reduce it to a record low’

 
Whilst the report identifies other issues around efficiency and also leadership and culture, it clearly shows the destructive consequences of the Conservatives’ failure to fund buildings and equipment, referring to it as “capital starvation” and notes a “staggering gap” with other nations. 

Cameron’s top-down reorganisations led by the then health secretary Andrew Lansley, is described as “a calamity without international precedent”. Even after the mistake was recognised, and reforms partly unwound, ministers created further upheaval abolishing the main public health body in the middle of the pandemic. Coming a week after the Grenfell inquiry’s attack on the deregulatory agenda pursued under Mr Cameron, this review is further evidence of the harm caused by 14-years of Tory government. 

The report is more complimentary about the new regional structure, but voices concerns about integrated care boards not being clear about their role and in need of clearer direction. Regulation is also found wanting, with the number of people in standards and regulatory roles proliferating to no useful purpose.  

The report was always meant to be just a diagnosis not a prescribed course of treatment. However, there is one recommendations; financial flows must be “hardwired”, presumably in law, if community care is to receive an increased share of the overall health budget. Something that health secretary, Wes Streeting, seems to agree with. 

Turning to immigration, what are Labour proposing there? 

Whilst this is still work-in-progress, the PM is using his current trip to Rome to learn what they are doing. Whilst learning from others makes sense, it does seem odd that a Labour PM, is learning from a neo-fascist! 

Keir Starmer defended this, saying: “Here there’s been some quite dramatic reductions. So I want to understand how that came about. 

“It looks as though that’s down to the upstream work that’s been done in some of the countries where people are coming from. 

“I’ve long believed, by the way, that prevention and stopping people travelling in the first place is one of the best ways to deal with this particular issue.” 
 

‘it does seem odd that a Labour PM, is learning from a neo-fascist!’

 
The Italian government, led by PM Georgia Meloni, has cut the number of people arriving in dinghies across the Mediterranean by almost two-thirds in the past year, from 118,000 to 44,500. 

Meloni has focused on financial deals with north African countries such as Tunisia and Libya to improve their border security so they can stop boats setting off across the sea. 

This autumn Italy is opening a holding centre in Albania to house asylum seekers picked up at sea by Italian rescue ships while their asylum applications are processed. 

One Labour MP said “cosying up to Meloni is shameful … she is all about dehumanising and mistreating people fleeing war and persecution. This leaves a very bad taste in the mouths of many people in our party.” 

Frontex, the EU’s border agency, recently revealed that migration had fallen by 61% on the central Mediterranean route in the first six months of 2024, with sources suggesting that Tunisia was taking more interest in cracking down on people-smugglers who last summer launched between 40 and 50 boats a day to Italy. 

In Germany, the continued success of the hard-right AfD, has led to the governing coalition announcing systematic border controls. Tighter checks at all of Germany’s nine land borders are an attempt by the government to curb immigration by preventing people, especially asylum seekers who have already crossed other EU states, from entering Germany. 
 

‘Tighter checks at all of Germany’s nine land borders are an attempt by the government to curb immigration’

 
The border checks are due to be in place for an initial six months, and came about after the leader of the conservative opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) called a “national emergency” after a Syrian asylum seeker who, under EU asylum regulations, should have been returned from Germany to Bulgaria, was charged with a killing in Solingen. 

These changes could seriously undermine one of the central tenets of the EU, the passport-free Schengen area, which now includes 25 of the 27 EU member states.  

Interestingly, this upheaval makes the longevity of the EU more certain. No longer is there talk of Frexit or Dexit, as the right is beginning to understand that instead of quitting, they can reshape the EU into a collection of “strong” nation states that will each enact their own right-wing anti-migration agenda. 

As Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally (RN) in France, recently remarked in explaining why his party no longer called for Frexit: “You don’t leave the table when you are winning the game.” 

One area that PM Starmer seems to be getting right is worker’s rights. Last week, he was the first PM for 15-yrs to address the TUC congress, where he promised “the biggest levelling up of workers’ rights in a generation”. 
 

‘explaining why his party no longer called for Frexit: “You don’t leave the table when you are winning the game.”’

 
One of the key tenets of Thatcherism was to break the unions, a policy that dated back to the “Ridley Report” of 1977. The report effectively wargamed how the next Conservative government could provoke, fight, and defeat, a major strike in a nationalised industry. (1) 

As a result, today only C.20% of all employees (6.4 million) belong to a union, compared with > half in 1979. 

One of the key restriction in rebalancing our economy are employment laws such as “exploitative zero-hours contracts”, and firing and rehiring of workers on lower wages. The diminution of worker’s rights since 1979, has meant that neither our growth rate or productivity has improved, and regional and social divisions have widened. 

In this respect Starmer is more left than New Labour were under Blair who during the 1997 election reassured the right-wing press and big business that under a Blair government British law would remain “the most restrictive on trade unions in the western world”. 

Aside for the public sector pay increases, what else might be forthcoming? 

Addressing the conference, Starmer insisted that he wants “partnership” between business and the unions, and that there is “a mood of change in the business world. A growing understanding of … the shared self-interest that comes from treating the workforce with respect and dignity. The productivity gain of fairness.”  

Countries where more employers behave like this, such as Germany and Sweden, have often outperformed Britain economically since the 1980s, and this country already has some long-established, relatively worker-friendly companies such as John Lewis and Richer Sounds.  

Unfortunately, these example are the exception; 45-yrs of Thatcherism means that business still sees employees as a cost rather than an asset. Whilst this attitude may not have benefited either the economy or the majority of the population, some individual businesses have profited lavishly, and many will lobby hard against change. 
 

’45-yrs of Thatcherism means that business still sees employees as a cost rather than an asset’

 
Finally, we turn to official opposition, the Tories. Next year marks 50-yrs since Margaret Thatcher became party leader, and they still haven’t moved on. 

Charles Moore is the keeper of the Thatcherite flame. He says “it is time to stop squandering that inheritance”, trumpeting the anti-state religion that makes them unelectable.  

So besotted are they with Thatcherism that they cannot see that much of it failed. Privatisation has largely failed consumers, social care is in tatters, and right-to-buy has created homelessness and inequality on a massive scale. The “left behind” of her de-industrialisation are suffering regional inequality, that led to an economic and social disaster. Deregulation has led directly to disasters such as the Grenfell fire. 

The electorate has seen the danger of low taxation, with many people preferring higher taxes if that is the cost of better public services; 40% want public services improved, compared with 27% who prefer tax cuts. 

The party is split into two tribes, as they select their sixth leader in eight years 

Representing the right we have Robert Jenrick and  Kemi Badenoch. 

Jenrick the current front runner, is infamous for fast-tracking a £1bn planning application for party donor Richard Desmond, which could have deprived Tower Hamlets council of £45m of revenue. As immigration minister he ordered staff at an asylum reception centre for children to strip illustrations of Mickey Mouse and Baloo from The Jungle Book from the walls, warning that this was “not a welcome centre”. He would leave the European convention on human rights (“ECHR”), and is anti-net zero, defying the 77% of voters who are worried about climate change.  

As “best prime minister”, the public rate him 20% against 48% for Keir Starmer.  
 

‘Badenoch has two shortcomings….oh, you work it out!’

 
Badenoch refers to Rachel Reeves as Chairman Mao, and claims it was no big deal for Britain’s economy that it ran the largest empire in history. A former protege of Michael Gove she is for ever freer markets and ever more capitalism, and is as anti-woke as it is possible to be. 

For the centrist, we have Tom Tugendhat, who is happy to leave the ECHR and wants more cash for the army and the police. He’s also the MP who, after Putin invaded Ukraine, demanded the UK “expel Russian citizens – all of them”. 

Finally there is James Cleverly, the only contender who recognises that right-wing voters didn’t just flood towards Farage: they also opted for Ed Davey and Keir Starmer. This leaves the former Brexit supporter urging “deregulation” and quoting Thatcher, that “the problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money”.  

As the final choice lays with the local parties it is safe to assume that a right-wing candidate will prevail. Jenrick looks the more likely, primarily because Badenoch has two shortcomings….oh, you work it out! 

If that’s the best they can hope for, Labour could be in government for years. Or, there is Farage…… 
 

When two tribes go to war 
A point is all you can score 

 
Notes: 

  1. https://otjc.org.uk/ridley-plan/ 

 

‘As the world goose steps to the right, we consider what is happening domestically.

Whilst Labour reclaimed the red wall, the LibDems colonised the blue wall.

The red wall was only ever on loan to the Tories, and was by Johnson on the premise of getting Brexit done and levelling-up. The former was a disaster, and the latter simply a pipe dream, or a nice idea.

The blue wall are disaffected Tories who don’t like the hard-right anti-anything progressive policies adopted to supposedly combat Faragism.

Perhaps due to our electoral system Farage is being constrained, whereas in Europe the situation is somewhat different.

Germany is being increasingly impacted by the rise of the AfD which is being reflected in mainstream parties panicking about immigration.

In Italy the right is in government and is having success combating illegal immigration, although I find a Labour PM hoping to learn from their ideas somewhat disconcerting.

The NHS review told us what we already knew; 14-yrs of Tory misgovernment coming close to destroying 80-yrs of public service. Coming on the back of the Greenfell reports damning statements about Tory deregulation, the Cameron years must go down as one of the most destructive periods in our recent history.

His last folly led to Brexit which has been such an unmitigated disaster that even hard-right European parties don’t wish to replicate it.

One of Cameron’s last legacies was improving on inequality in a way that even Thatcher was hard pushed to match. Breaking unions and destroying workers rights, deindustrialisation, alongside Cameron’s austerity has led to us being one of the most unequal countries in Europe.

Perhaps, labour focus on workers rights can overcome this, and put the economy on track to grow. Time will tell.

As for the Tories, what is there to say? As long as they continue to try and beat Farage at his own game they will remain in opposition. If, as is expected, they elect Jenrick as leader, the question might be, just how irrelevant the party can become?

Lyrically, we ask “What’s Going On?” with Marvin Gaye’s 1971 classic. We end with “Two Tribes” by Frankie Goes to Hollywood, the end 30th biggest selling British single of all time. Frankie also has the 6th biggest seller with “Relax”, “Come, Whoa-oh-oh”.  

Enjoy! But, not too much.

Philip.’

 

@coldwarsteve
 


 
 
 

Philip Gilbert 2Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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