Starmer’s speech a decisive test for bond markets and investors 

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s keynote speech at the Labour Party conference today is being watched by investors, businesses and global bond markets with acute attention, warns financial advisory giant deVere Group’s CEO Nigel Green.

He says: “This is not just another party conference address. It’s a make-or-break moment for credibility.

“Bond markets, already charging the UK a premium to borrow, will immediately reprice if they sense a repeat of the policy missteps of recent years, specifically the Truss-era. This would raise costs for the government, for companies, and for households.”

The pressure comes after Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered a £25 billion payroll tax increase in her first Budget, contributing to falling vacancies, higher unemployment and mounting unease across corporate Britain.

“Multinationals in pharmaceuticals and energy have already delayed UK investments, while the abolition of non-dom status has accelerated capital flight that’s now leaving a visible hole in public finances.”

He continues: “Businesses need certainty, not surprises, The repeated tax raids, from windfall levies on energy to higher capital gains for entrepreneurs, have sent a chill through the economy.

“What markets and corporate Britain want to hear today is that there’ll be no further shocks.”

The banking industry is particularly sensitive to speculation of further levies, including cuts to the interest it receives on deposits held at the Bank of England.

Pension savers and asset managers are also waiting for clear assurances that the tax regime supporting long-term retirement saving will remain intact.

“Investors will punish ambiguity. Any hint of fiscal looseness or new burdens on enterprise will echo immediately in gilt yields.

“Starmer must instead demonstrate discipline and a long-term vision for growth. This is the only way to win back market trust and release investment into the real economy,” says the deVere CEO.

As of this week, the yield on the UK 10-year gilt is hovering around 4.73%, a level that underscores how much premium capital currently demands to lend to the government. Longer-dated borrowing is even more strained — the 30-year gilt recently jumped above 5.74%, approaching levels not seen since the late 1990s. These rates already reflect anxiety over fiscal direction; any suggestion of policy looseness risks shifting them higher again overnight.

Markets remember the turmoil triggered by the Truss government’s mini-budget in 2022, when poorly costed plans crashed sterling, spiked borrowing costs and forced emergency Bank of England intervention.

“This cautionary tale remains fresh,” notes Nigel Green. “No leader should ever underestimate again how swiftly global capital will turn away if it senses risk.”

Yet the opportunity is equally clear. The UK has the chance to restore its reputation as a reliable destination for investment. Lower borrowing costs, renewed foreign direct investment and revived business confidence are all on offer “if the Prime Minister can deliver credible commitments today.”

Nigel Green concludes: “This speech must send a clear signal to bondholders and businesses that Britain is stable, serious, and open for growth.

“Success would likely deliver benefits of cheaper financing, stronger investor appetite, and momentum for an economy that urgently needs it.

“The world’s financial decision-makers will be hanging on his words.”