Stock markets ready to surge if Trump–Zelenskiy talks deliver progress 

Global stock markets are primed for a sharp advance if talks at the White House between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy yield even modest progress.

This is the bullish prediction from Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations, as European leaders, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, head with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy to Washington to meet Donald Trump at the White House to discuss a peace deal.

The lack of fresh sanctions following Trump’s Alaska summit with Vladimir Putin has steadied sentiment, but a constructive signal in Washington could be the trigger for a decisive risk rally.

European futures rose 0.2% Monday and S&P 500 contracts added 0.1%, tracking earlier gains in Asia, where Indian equities posted their strongest move in more than three months and Shanghai indices touched decade highs.

Treasuries edged higher, pushing the 10-year yield to 4.30%. Gold firmed 0.4%, crude oil stabilised as disruption concerns eased, and cryptocurrencies slipped.

Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group, says: “Equities are set up for a powerful move.

“Investors have priced in confrontation, not cooperation. If Washington produces even a hint of forward motion, the S&P 500 can punch higher, Europe’s indices will accelerate, and emerging market currencies will surge as safe-haven demand unwinds.”

He continues: “The market is wired for disappointment, which creates outsized upside if that disappointment is avoided.

“The sheer weight of cash on the sidelines means any sign of progress will not just spark a rally, it could reshape asset allocation across the board.”

Fund positioning highlights the risk of being caught off guard. Flows into European equities remain subdued, while defensive cash levels are elevated. A political breakthrough, however limited, would force managers to “re-enter risk quickly, fuelling momentum.”

Nigel Green notes: “Gold and Treasuries would lose traction as havens are sold. Oil would settle into a narrower range without sanctions risk. The dollar would soften as appetite returns for higher-yielding currencies. Bitcoin, which dipped at the start of the week, would likely catch a second wind.

“Risk sentiment and digital assets have been moving in tandem. Confidence in dialogue would push Bitcoin back onto an upward trajectory.”

The timing is critical, coming ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole retreat.

Chair Jerome Powell is expected to outline the case for a September rate cut following weaker US data, but with monetary policy largely priced in, the geopolitical stage could dictate near-term market direction.

Nigel Green adds: “Markets are not waiting for perfect solutions, they’re waiting for a signal that diplomacy is alive.

“Such a single signal can reset risk, reframe valuations, and redirect flows across equities, bonds, commodities and crypto.”

He concludes: “If the White House meeting alters the tone, even subtly, it won’t just drive a temporary rally.

“It’ll mark the start of a broader repositioning by global investors who have been frozen on the sidelines. This week’s talks carry the potential to change the trajectory of markets well beyond the next few days.”