Tariffs and Chocolate Stocks: A Bittersweet Easter Tale

Easter 2025 is upon us, and while chocolate bunnies are hopping off the shelves, the confectionery industry faces a complex mix of sweet sales and bitter challenges. In 2024, US Easter candy sales reached $5.39 billion, a 2.6% increase from the previous year – by Lale Akoner, Global Market Analyst at eToro

As of April 2025, US Easter candy sales are projected to reach approximately $3.3 billion, reflecting a slight decrease from the $5.39 billion reported in 2024.

Companies like Hershey, and Mondelez – the owner of brands like Cadbury and Toblerone – have historically seen significant revenue boosts during this season. However, the sweetness is tempered by soaring cocoa prices. As of April 7, cocoa prices soared to $8,555 per metric ton, driven by poor harvests in West Africa. Manufacturers are raising prices, reducing product sizes, and exploring alternative ingredients to maintain profitability.

Adding to the industry’s challenges, the US has announced new tariffs, including a 21% duty on cocoa imports from Ivory Coast and 10% from Ghana (these numbers will likely be negotiated with the US administration). These tariffs threaten to increase production costs for American chocolate companies, potentially leading to higher consumer prices and strained supply chains. Ivory Coast has indicated it may raise cocoa prices further in response, which worsen cost pressures for chocolate producers and consumers alike.The EU’s upcoming Deforestation Regulation, set to take effect in December 2025, will also require companies to ensure their cocoa is sourced sustainably, adding another layer of complexity to supply chain management.

Despite these hurdles, chocolate companies are adapting, focusing on cost hedging, innovation and premium offerings that can absorb higher costs. As consumers continue to embrace holiday traditions, the chocolate industry faces a complex landscape shaped by rising tariffs and economic pressures. Their ability to adapt will be crucial in maintaining the balance between delivering cherished holiday treats and managing economic realities.