The first 100 days: Investors navigate a challenging crossroads for the US

Bola Onifade, portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan owned digital wealth manager, Nutmeg reflects on investing and global markets during the first 100 days of the 47^th presidential term

“Back in January, it was clear that the U.S was at a crossroads, ready to shift gears under new leadership in the White House. What was unclear at the time was the extent to which reforms and changes under the new administration would lead to disruptions in global trade and market volatility for investors. The ricochet effects of  ‘liberation day’ in early April have shown us all that we should not underestimate the reach and impact of the new US administration.

“Today, some investors will be feeling bruised after a period of volatility and turbulence over the past 100 days. Winners and losers have clearly emerged since the inauguration in unexpected places. The main US equity indexes, the S&P500 and Nasdaq, thrived during the transition period but have shrunk by nearly a tenth since inauguration day. Technology leaders have also had their valuations cut, with some of their supply chains now being upended after the tariff announcements.

“On the other side of the coin, asset classes and sectors with defensive qualities have been less impacted and even flourished over this period of flux. For example, as inflation fears have risen, the share price of non-discretionary consumer staples have benefited across the UK, Europe, and US. Alternative investments such as gold have also rewarded investors with positive returns. This period reminds us that money often doesn’t leave the market but instead migrates to other places.

“The last 100 days present plenty of lessons and learnings for investors. The remarkable nature of how quick policies have been announced, changed, accelerated, or ditched has further generated uncertainty and volatility. For investors, this highlights the importance of building a resilient portfolio that can weather periods of volatility and benefit from a global strategic asset allocation. By having broad exposure to asset classes and geographies, portfolio performance can be cushioned when there are losses in one asset class.”

Negotiations are key to outlook in second half of 2025

“Looking ahead, it is impossible to ignore the potential impact of tariffs and the clear shift in perceptions around the US economy and its future. With that said, there are dangers of giving in to short-term narratives in a fast-changing world. Several fundamentals of the world’s largest economy’s recent exceptionalism – low unemployment, a resilient consumer, and a relatively closed economy – still remain true today.

“Negotiations with the world’s largest economy and key trading partners continue at pace and could be a principal driver of the market outlook for global markets in the second half of the year and indeed into next year. While it is difficult to make any short-term assumptions about these talks, we are watching these negotiations with key trading partners closely for any signs of a softening stance.”